饲料养殖产业日报-2025-04-03

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of live pigs will fluctuate around 14 yuan/kg, with a high risk of decline in the medium - long term due to strong supply and weak demand. For eggs, the short - term supply - demand pattern has marginally improved, but the supply pressure will increase in the long term. The short - term trend of the three major domestic oils is strong, but the increase is limited, and the price may decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. The short - term price of soybean meal is weak, while the long - term price has strong support. The short - term price of corn is easy to rise but hard to fall, and the price will rise in the medium - long term with limited upside space [1][2][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - On April 3, the spot price of live pigs in Liaoning was 14 - 14.6 yuan/kg, down 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.4 - 14.9 yuan/kg, also down 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan and Guangdong, it remained stable. The short - term price is supported by factors such as cost control by large - scale farms, low - level entry of secondary fattening, and potential increase in demand during holidays. However, the price is under pressure due to cautious secondary fattening after price increases, increased large - pig slaughter, and limited terminal consumption. In the medium - long term, the supply will increase from March to September 2024, and the supply pressure in the second quarter is large. The strategy is to go short on rebounds, and sell out - of - the - money call options for contracts 07 and 09 [1]. Eggs - On April 3, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.05 yuan/jin, and in Beijing was 3.16 yuan/jin, both remaining stable. In April, the supply pressure is large due to the increase in laying hens, but the increase in old - hen culling and festival - driven consumption have improved the supply - demand pattern. In the long term, the supply will continue to increase in the second quarter due to high - profit - driven replenishment from December 2024 to February 2025. The strategy is to wait and see for contract 05, and take a bearish view on contracts 08 and 09 [2]. Oils - On April 2, the US soybean oil main contract rose 5.71% to 47.27 cents/pound, and the Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 2.22% to 4518 ringgit/ton. The prices of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil all increased. For palm oil, the export of Malaysian palm oil improved in March, but the production also increased, and the inventory may rise from April. The short - term price of the Malaysian 06 contract will fluctuate between 4200 - 4600. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the price may fall from a high level in the medium - long term. For soybean oil, the potential increase in biodiesel blending in the US is positive, but the new tariffs and large - scale Brazilian soybean harvest are negative. The domestic supply pressure will be large in the medium term. For rapeseed oil, the trade interruption between China and Canada will intensify the supply - demand tension in the medium - long term, and the price is expected to rebound after the second quarter. The strategy is to be cautious about chasing up the 05 contracts of the three oils and pay attention to the spread - widening strategy of the rapeseed - soybean 09 contract [4][5][6]. Soybean Meal - On April 2, the US soybean 05 contract fell 4.75 cents to 1029.5 cents/bu, and the soybean meal 05 contract closed at 2820 yuan/ton. The new tariffs imposed by Trump have a negative impact on US soybeans. In the short term, the market is trading around the South American bumper harvest, and the price of US soybeans is weak. Domestically, the de - stocking of soybean meal is not as expected, and the price is weak. In the long term, the import cost will increase, and the price has strong support. The strategy is to be cautious about going long on the 05 and 07 contracts in the short term and to go long on the m2509 contract at low prices [8]. Corn - On April 2, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the short term, the spot price has pressure due to farmers' selling and high port inventory, but it is supported by the bullish sentiment of traders and downstream replenishment demand. In the medium - long term, the supply - demand is tightening, but the upside space is limited due to substitutes. The strategy is to take a bullish view, and look for opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on pullbacks [9]. Futures Market Overview - On April 2, the prices of various futures and spot products showed different trends. For example, the US soybean 05 contract fell, while the prices of some domestic oils and eggs rose. The details of price changes for each variety are shown in the table [11].