长江期货黑色产业日报-2025-04-03

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Report's Core View The report analyzes the trends of black - related commodities including rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and coke. It is expected that these commodities will generally show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as US tariff policies, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic conditions. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - On Wednesday, rebar futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the basis was 84 (+24). Due to the large - scale US tariff increase, prices are expected to face pressure today [1]. - Last week, rebar production and apparent consumption both slightly increased, and the speed of inventory reduction accelerated slightly. The inventory reduction of five major steel products was smooth, and there is still room for short - term hot metal production to rise [1]. - Domestic Two Sessions policy intensity basically met expectations, but economic data from January to February were still weak, with the real estate market in a continuous decline and infrastructure growth slightly improving [1]. - In terms of valuation, rebar futures prices have fallen near the electric furnace valley electricity cost, and the static valuation is at a moderately low level. In terms of driving factors, the peak demand in the first half of the year is still in the verification period, and the impact of tariffs and domestic countermeasures need further observation. Prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [1]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Trump's tariff policy last night exceeded market expectations, and the RMB exchange rate was weak, which is expected to have a greater negative impact on iron ore swaps [1]. - The latest total shipment volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2,647.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 132.7 million tons. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 23,630.85 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 43.50 million tons. The daily hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 237.28 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.02 million tons [1]. - The factors restricting the shipment of Australia and Brazil have subsided, and port inventories are facing upward pressure. The supply side is relatively strong. The blast furnace restart after the Spring Festival is nearly over, and subsequent production recovery is limited. It is expected that the growth rate of hot metal will slow down [1]. - Affected by the unexpected US tariff policy, there is a macro - level negative impact on ore prices. The market should pay attention to the 800 pressure level on the disk [1]. Coking Coal - In terms of supply, some coal mines in the main production areas are restricted in production due to accidents and environmental protection factors. Coupled with the release of downstream replenishment demand, the supply of high - sulfur coal in the region has tightened, the trading atmosphere in the auction market has improved, and the prices of some coal types have shown tentative increases [3]. - In terms of imports, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has decreased month - on - month due to weak demand. Although the supply of Australian long - term resources is stable, the domestic spot price is weak, and the cost - performance advantage is insufficient, so traders are cautious in taking delivery [3]. - In terms of demand, the accelerated restart of steel mills has driven the increase in hot metal production, and the demand for coking enterprises to replenish raw materials has gradually been released, but its sustainability needs to be tracked [3]. - In general, the coking coal market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. The core contradiction in the current market lies in the game between high supply and demand sustainability. Attention should be paid to the substantial improvement signal of finished product demand and the change in imported coal cost [3]. Coke - In terms of supply, the production of coking enterprises in the main production areas has remained stable, the previous inventory pressure has gradually eased, some enterprises have accelerated the shipment by improving logistics efficiency, and the factory inventory has continued to decline [4]. - Although the profit level of coking enterprises is limited after the previous price adjustment, the production rhythm has not significantly shrunk under the support of rigid demand [4]. - In terms of demand, with the progress of blast furnace restart, the stable increase in hot metal production has driven the release of rigid demand for coke [4]. - At the cost end, the prices of some coal types have shown tentative increases, and the marginal cost of coke entering the furnace has increased, forming a bottom support for prices. However, under the background of coking - steel game, the lack of sustainability of downstream replenishment is still a concern [4]. - In general, the supply - demand pattern of coke has marginally improved, and it may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the elasticity of hot metal production, the realization of finished product consumption, and the fluctuation rhythm of coking coal cost [4]. Economic News - On April 2, local time, US President Trump announced "reciprocal tariff" measures on trading partners, imposing a 34% reciprocal tariff on China, 20% on the EU, and 24% on Japan [6]. - The General Offices of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Price Governance Mechanism", proposing to accelerate the construction of key - area markets, promote the construction of important commodity spot and futures markets, optimize rules for futures variety listing, trading, and supervision, and develop trading markets for oil, gas, coal, etc. in an orderly manner [6]. - As of April 1, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 57.95%, a week - on - week increase of 0.08 percentage points. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 59.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points [6]. - The Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway started a 30 - day spring maintenance project on April 1 [6]. - In the first quarter of 2025, the China Trade Remedy Information Network successively announced 37 anti - dumping and counter - subsidy investigations or rulings initiated by foreign countries against Chinese steel products, including stainless - steel sinks and hot - rolled carbon steel pipes [6].