Group 1: Overall Report Information - The report is an Energy and Chemical Daily report, with data sourced from Flush iFind, Baichuan Yingfu, Longzhong Information, and Zhuochuang Information [8] Group 2: PVC Analysis Current Situation - On April 2, the PVC main 05 contract closed at 5,072 yuan/ton (-27), with the Changzhou market price at 4,900 yuan/ton (0), the main basis at -172 yuan/ton (+27), the Guangzhou market price at 5,040 yuan/ton (-10), and the Hangzhou market price at 4,940 yuan/ton (-10). Lan charcoal medium material was 675 yuan/ton (0), Wuhai calcium carbide was 2,700 yuan/ton (0), and ethylene was 7,100 yuan/ton (0) [2] Core View - In the long term, PVC demand is continuously sluggish due to the drag of the real estate sector, exports are suppressed by anti - dumping and BIS certification, and the export volume accounts for a small proportion (about 12%). The supply side has many new investment plans, caustic soda profit is high, the start - up rate is continuously maintained at a high level, and inventory is high, resulting in a large supply pressure. With insufficient demand, over - capacity, and a loose supply - demand pattern, it is a short - side allocation. Currently, there are few maintenance operations. From mid - April, the number will increase month - on - month but be less year - on - year. Exports are in a stable state by trading at lower prices, and domestic demand is seasonally recovering. Valuation is neutral, fundamental driving force is limited, financial attributes are stronger than commodity attributes, and it fluctuates with the market. It is expected that PVC will fluctuate weakly at a low level, with attention paid to the 5,200 pressure level [2] Key Points to Follow - New production progress, spring maintenance implementation, downstream resumption of work, export situation, domestic monetary, fiscal, and energy consumption policies, as well as Fed interest rate cuts and Trump's policy tariffs [2] Group 3: Caustic Soda Analysis Current Situation - On April 2, the caustic soda main SH05 contract closed at 2,511 yuan/ton (-4), the mainstream price in the Shandong market was 855 yuan/ton (0), equivalent to 2,672 yuan/ton (0) for 100% caustic soda, and liquid chlorine in Shandong was 50 yuan/ton (0). From April 1, a certain alumina manufacturer in Shandong reduced the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 15 yuan/ton, with an ex - factory price of 795 yuan/ton (equivalent to 2,484 yuan/ton for 100% caustic soda). As of March 27, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country was 489,000 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month increase of 6.37% and a year - on - year increase of 15.52% [3] Core View - Currently, inventory is high, the price of liquid chlorine is rising, there is an expectation of restored operation of maintenance devices, the start - up rate is maintained at a high level, the marginal profit of alumina production capacity is weakening, production cuts are increasing, non - aluminum demand has limited elasticity, and demand growth is limited, so there is insufficient upward driving force for the futures market. However, after the end of Ramadan in Indonesia, export orders are expected to improve, and there may be an expectation of a price drop for liquid chlorine in the later period. The futures market is also cautious about downward movement, showing a cautious and weak trend [3] Key Points to Follow - Weiquan's delivery volume and price, inventory reduction situation, and the production and start - up situation of alumina in the medium term [3] Group 4: Urea Analysis Current Situation - The urea main contract closed at 1,896 yuan/ton, the spot price in the Henan market was 1,959 yuan/ton, and in the Shandong market was 1,954 yuan/ton. The operating load rate of urea plants in China decreased slightly, and the daily average output of urea dropped slightly to 194,000 tons. The anthracite market was generally quiet, and coal prices remained stable. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 54.56%, an increase of 1.53 percentage points from last week, and the compound fertilizer start - up rate was rising steadily. The compound fertilizer inventory was 598,600 tons, an increase of 39,700 tons from last week. Industrial demands such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin were steadily progressing. Urea enterprise inventory was 805,000 tons, a decrease of 210,000 tons from last week [4] Core View - Urea supply decreased slightly month - on - month, but the daily average output was still at a high level. The start - up of compound fertilizer was stable, and the inventory reduction rhythm of compound fertilizer products was temporarily stagnant. However, from mid - to late April to May, the compound fertilizer start - up rate will still be at a high level, which will support the demand for urea. It is expected that the urea price will decline slightly in the short term and may adjust upward later [4] Key Points to Follow - Urea plant production reduction and maintenance situation, warehouse receipt situation, compound fertilizer start - up situation, export policy, and coal price fluctuations [4][6] Group 5: Methanol Analysis Current Situation - The methanol main contract fell 0.76% and closed at 2,486 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the Taicang market was 2,575 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of methanol plants decreased slightly. Recently, a 600,000 - ton plant in the north is planned for maintenance, and some methanol plants in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Guanzhong have gradually resumed normal operation, with overall supply being loose. Coal prices declined, weakening cost support. The methanol - to - olefins start - up rate was 87.54%, a decrease of 1.79 percentage points from last week. Methanol enterprise inventory was 236,200 tons, a decrease of 13,700 tons from last week, and the current inventory of inland methanol enterprises is maintained at a low level. Methanol port inventory was 773,800 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons from last week [7] Core View - The start - up rate of inland methanol is at a high level, and supply is loose. The start - up of downstream methanol - to - olefins decreased slightly, the methanol market trading was average, and the quotes of some manufacturers declined. Under the background of low inventory in inland and ports, it is not advisable to be overly bearish. Attention should be paid to changes in downstream purchasing sentiment [7] Key Points to Follow - Macroeconomic environment changes, methanol production plant reduction and maintenance situation, methanol - to - olefins start - up, and international crude oil prices [7]
能源化工日报-2025-04-03
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-04-03 02:38