有色金属日报-2025-04-03

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper prices may continue to adjust in the short - term but are likely to be bullish in the long - term, with a short - term high - level wide - range shock. It is recommended to exit long positions on rallies and replenish after a pullback. The price reference range is 79,000 - 81,500 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum prices may have room for correction, and it is recommended to go long in batches as the price pulls back. Attention should be paid to inventory data [3]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see or go short on rallies [5]. - Tin prices are expected to have increased volatility. It is recommended to build positions on dips, with the reference operating range for the SHFE 05 contract being 280,000 - 315,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basic Metals 3.1.1 Copper - As of April 2, the SHFE copper main 05 contract closed down 0.01% at 79,890 yuan/ton. US tariff policies and supply - side events have affected prices. The domestic spot market has weak demand, and social inventories are slightly decreasing. The copper market in the US may face arbitrage pressure, and prices may continue to adjust. In the short - term, prices may stop falling and stabilize, and in the long - term, they are likely to rise [1]. 3.1.2 Aluminum - As of April 2, the SHFE aluminum main 05 contract closed down 0.24% at 20,435 yuan/ton. The overall supply of the ore end is improving, and prices are falling. Alumina production capacity has decreased, and inventories have increased. Multiple alumina enterprises have cut production. Electrolytic aluminum production capacity has increased. The downstream operating rate has risen, and inventories have decreased. Aluminum prices may have room for correction [2][3]. 3.1.3 Nickel - As of April 2, the SHFE nickel main 05 contract closed up 0.61% at 129,460 yuan/ton. The US economic situation has increased stagflation risks. The price of nickel ore is expected to rise, while refined nickel is in surplus. Nickel iron prices are strong, and stainless steel production is high. The price of nickel sulfate is strong, but demand is limited. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely [4][5]. 3.1.4 Tin - As of April 2, the SHFE tin main 05 contract closed up 3.89% at 297,590 yuan/ton. The recent price increase is due to the shortage of spot supply caused by the earthquake in Myanmar. Domestic production has increased, and imports have decreased. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and inventories are at a medium level. Prices are expected to be more volatile [6]. 3.2 Spot Transaction Summary 3.2.1 Copper - The domestic spot copper price slightly increased. The spot market had low pick - up volume, and downstream buyers were cautious. The overall stocking volume was mediocre [7]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - The spot aluminum price was stable in some regions and decreased in others. The spot market had average transactions. Sellers mainly sold goods before the festival, and the downstream had limited replenishment demand [8]. 3.2.3 Alumina - The alumina price decreased in various regions. The spot market had weak transactions, and downstream electrolytic aluminum manufacturers continued to suppress prices and purchase less [9]. 3.2.4 Zinc - The spot zinc price decreased. The terminal buying sentiment was low, and demand was limited [10][12]. 3.2.5 Lead - The spot lead price decreased. The downstream maintained a rigid demand for transactions, and the market atmosphere was relatively stable [12][13]. 3.2.6 Nickel - The spot nickel price was flat. The market maintained rigid demand for purchases, and the overall activity was not high [14][15]. 3.2.7 Tin - The spot tin price increased. Downstream enterprises were cautious and maintained a wait - and - see attitude [16][17]. 3.3 Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased, while tin futures warehouse receipts increased. LME copper, tin, lead, zinc, and aluminum inventories decreased, and nickel inventory remained unchanged [19].