Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View The coking coal and coke markets are in a low - level oscillation. Short - term demand recovery is difficult to absorb the increasing supply, and the short - term short - selling space for coking coal and coke is limited. It is advisable to try shorting at high levels in the far - month contracts [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Performance - The Jm2505 contract closed at 1001.5, down 0.64% from the previous trading day's close. The J2505 contract closed at 1636.5, down 0.7% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session of the previous day, the Jm2505 contract closed at 996.5, down 0.5% from the daily session close, and the J2505 contract closed at 1632.0, down 0.27% from the daily session close [1]. Important News - The General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Improving the Price Governance Mechanism", proposing to speed up the construction of key - area markets, promote the construction of important commodity spot and futures markets, and develop trading markets for oil, gas, coal, etc. in an orderly manner [1]. - On April 2, local time, US President Trump announced "reciprocal tariff" measures on trading partners, imposing a 34% reciprocal tariff on China, 20% on the EU, and 24% on Japan [1]. - This week, the average tax - included cost of steel billets for mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan is 2946 yuan/ton. Compared with the ex - factory price of 3050 yuan/ton for common billets on April 2, the average profit of steel mills is 104 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton week - on - week [1]. - This week, the operating rate of 110 sample coal - washing plants nationwide is 60.77%, a decrease of 1.22% from the previous period; the daily average output is 51.82 tons, a decrease of 0.42 tons; the raw coal inventory is 279.13 tons, an increase of 7.64 tons; the clean coal inventory is 191.80 tons, a decrease of 22.12 tons [1]. Market Logic The main contracts of coking coal and coke declined slightly. Demand data has improved in the past two weeks, and the spot price has also rebounded. However, the overall supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Short - term demand recovery is difficult to absorb the continuous increase in supply. The near - month contracts are close to the warehouse - receipt cost, with relatively limited fluctuation space. Both long and short sides are gradually shifting positions to the 09 contracts [1]. Trading Strategy The short - term short - selling space for coking coal and coke is limited. It is advisable to try shorting at high levels in the far - month contracts [1].
格林大华期货早盘提示-2025-04-03
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-04-03 02:36