Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are expected to fluctuate weakly, and treasury bonds are recommended to take profits and wait and see [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Rebar and coking coal are expected to fluctuate, while iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][7] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is recommended to close long positions at high prices and replenish long positions after a callback; aluminum is expected to fluctuate within the range of 20300 - 21000; nickel is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices; tin is expected to be strong; gold and silver are recommended to build positions at low prices and be cautious about chasing high prices [1][11] - Energy Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; urea is recommended for range - bound operations; soda ash is recommended to hold short positions in call options [1][21] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate weakly, apples are expected to strengthen, and PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][27] - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs are expected to fluctuate weakly; eggs are strongly supported in the near - term and recommended to be shorted at high prices in the far - term; corn is recommended to go long at low prices; soybean meal is recommended to be cautious about going long in the short - term and go long lightly in the far - term; oils are expected to fluctuate within a range [1][32] Core Views - The global economic situation is complex, with factors such as Trump's tariff policy, overseas shocks, and domestic policies affecting the markets of various industries [5][7][11] - Different industries have different supply - demand relationships and cost - profit situations, which lead to different investment strategies [7][11][21] - The markets of various industries are affected by both macro - factors and industry - specific factors, and investors need to pay attention to multiple factors [5][7][11] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Index Futures: Due to tariff disturbances and the market's focus on fundamentals during the earnings season, index futures may be under pressure [5] - Treasury Bonds: The bond market improved on Wednesday due to factors such as reduced issuance pressure, improved liquidity, and institutional behavior. The market may accelerate if there are significant overseas shocks, or the yield may correct in the short - term if the overseas impact is lower than expected [5][6] Black Building Materials - Rebar: The price was narrowly fluctuating on Wednesday. Affected by the US tariff increase, it is expected to be under pressure. In the short - term, iron ore production may increase, and the demand peak in the first half of the year is still to be verified, so the price is expected to fluctuate [7] - Iron Ore: The price was narrowly fluctuating on Wednesday. Trump's tariff policy may have a negative impact on iron ore swaps. The supply is increasing, and the demand is affected by tariffs. The price is expected to fluctuate [7][8] - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market is affected by factors such as supply restrictions in some areas, import changes, and increased demand from steel mills. The coke market has improved supply - demand, but there are concerns about downstream restocking. Both are expected to fluctuate [8][9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Affected by the US tariff policy and supply - demand changes, the price has fluctuated. Next week, the price correction may drive downstream restocking, and the price is expected to be in a high - level wide - range fluctuation [11] - Aluminum: The overall supply of the ore end is improving, and the production capacity of alumina has decreased. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, and the demand is rising. Affected by policies at home and abroad, the price may have a callback space, and it is recommended to go long in steps during the callback [13] - Nickel: Affected by macro - factors, nickel ore policies, and supply - demand in different sectors, the price is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation, and it is recommended to wait and see or short at high prices [15][16] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to build positions at low prices [17] - Gold and Silver: Affected by factors such as the US economic data, tariff policy, and central bank policies, the prices of gold and silver are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to build positions at low prices and be cautious about chasing high prices [19][20] Energy Chemicals - PVC: The long - term demand is affected by the real estate industry, and the supply is under pressure. Currently, it is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level, and attention should be paid to factors such as new production, spring maintenance, and downstream resumption [22] - Caustic Soda: The inventory is high, the demand growth is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory reduction and alumina production [24] - Urea: The supply has slightly decreased, the demand from compound fertilizer is stable, and the price is expected to decline slightly in the short - term and then adjust upwards. Attention should be paid to factors such as production reduction and compound fertilizer production [25] - Methanol: The supply is loose, the downstream demand has decreased slightly, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as downstream purchasing sentiment [25] - Soda Ash: The supply has increased, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in call options [26] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton: The global cotton supply and demand are expected to change slightly, and the market consumption is not strong. It is expected to fluctuate [27] - Apples: The market in the production area is stable, the inventory is low, and the price is expected to strengthen [28] - PTA: Affected by crude oil and supply - demand, it is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4700 - 5000 [29] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: In the short - term, the price is supported by factors such as festival demand, but in the long - term, the supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short at high prices [32][33] - Eggs: In the short - term, the supply - demand pattern has improved, and in the long - term, the supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to wait and see for the near - term contract and short at high prices for the far - term contract [34] - Corn: In the short - term, the spot price is easy to rise and difficult to fall, and in the long - term, the supply - demand is tightening, but the upside is limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices [35] - Soybean Meal: In the short - term, it is affected by South American harvest and high inventory, and the price is weak; in the long - term, the import cost may increase, and the price has support. It is recommended to be cautious about going long in the short - term and go long lightly in the far - term [36][37] - Oils: In the short - term, the prices of the three major oils are expected to be strong, but the upside is limited. In the long - term, the prices may decline in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to spread - trading strategies [40][44][45]
期货市场交易指引-2025-04-03
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-04-03 02:44