Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, as the US tariffs approach and Indonesian policies are about to be finalized, the hype sentiment fades. The oversupply situation of refined nickel remains unchanged. Prices are expected to decline in the near - term, seeking support through oscillations before trading within a range. A long - term strategy of selling hedges on rallies is maintained [3]. - For the stainless - steel market, with the approaching US tariffs and the upcoming implementation of Indonesian policies, after the hype subsides, strong cost support remains. Prices are expected to rebound within a range in the near - term, and the long - term strategy is also to sell hedges on rallies [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Analysis - Futures Performance: On April 2, 2025, the main nickel contract 2505 opened at 129,800 yuan/ton and closed at 129,460 yuan/ton, a 0.61% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 182,352 lots, and the open interest was 89,600 lots. The night session saw a small gap - down followed by a rapid decline, then a rebound to near the opening price for sideways oscillations. The day session had a small decline, followed by an oscillatory rebound and sideways oscillations, closing with a small negative line. Trading volume decreased compared to the previous day, and open interest changed little [1][2]. - Policy and Price Information: US President Trump is expected to announce the targets for reciprocal tariffs. Indonesia's APNI announced the first - phase metal mineral reference price (HMA) for April 2025 at $16,126.33/ton, a 3.81% increase ($591.71/ton) from the second - phase HMA in March [2]. - Spot Market: Jinchuan nickel's morning quote increased by about 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and prices of mainstream brands also rose. The nickel price oscillated and recovered during the day, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment and average refined nickel spot trading. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 1,750 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 27,616 (- 311.0) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 199,020 (0) tons [2]. Nickel Strategy - Unilateral: Focus on range - bound operations. - Inter - period, Inter - variety, Spot - Futures, Options: No strategies provided [3]. Stainless - Steel Market Analysis - Futures Performance: On April 2, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2505 opened at 13,465 yuan/ton and closed at 13,560 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 134,040 lots, and the open interest was 110,583 lots. The contract had high - level narrow - range oscillations, closing with a doji. Trading volume decreased compared to the previous day, and open interest changed little [3][4]. - Market News: On April 1, a Shandong steel mill's Indonesian iron purchase price was 1,020 yuan/nickel (f.o.b.) and 1,025 yuan/nickel (delivered), tax - included, with a transaction volume of thousands of tons and a delivery date in mid - May. An Indonesian factory's high - nickel iron transaction price was 1,030 yuan/nickel, f.o.b. and tax - included, with a transaction volume of over ten thousand tons and a delivery date in April. A domestic steel mill's high - nickel iron transaction price was also 1,030 yuan/nickel [4]. - Spot Market: The stainless - steel futures price oscillated at a high level. Steel mills still held firm on prices, and spot prices slightly increased. Merchant wait - and - see sentiment grew, and afternoon trading became lighter. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 13,750 yuan/ton, and in Foshan market was 13,700 yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 200 - 500 yuan/ton. The previous day's average ex - factory price of high - nickel pig iron was unchanged at 1,032.5 yuan/nickel point [4][5]. Stainless - Steel Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - Inter - period, Inter - variety, Spot - Futures, Options: No strategies provided [5].
新能源及有色金属日报:沪镍振荡运行,精炼镍升贴水稳中微调-2025-04-03
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-04-03 03:29