五矿期货贵金属日报-2025-04-03

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of Trump's reciprocal tariff measures has significantly increased global financial and trade risks, with the overall tariff collection level exceeding expectations. This has led to a further decline in the US stock market, and the risk - aversion demand is favorable for the gold price. As an industrial metal, the silver price is relatively weak, and the gold - silver ratio has further increased [2]. - Fed Governor Kugler's hawkish stance and better - than - expected US ADP employment data have reduced the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy. However, the economic and trade risks brought by the US tariff policy are the main trading logic in the market. Precious metals will still have price resilience, and gold with stronger risk - aversion attributes will outperform silver. It is recommended to hold existing long positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 722 - 750 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver, it is 8146 - 8545 yuan/kilogram [2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold (Au) dropped 0.14% to 734.40 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver (Ag) dropped 0.13% to 8396.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.58% to 3184.50 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver dropped 1.10% to 34.27 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.2%, and the US dollar index was at 103.12 [2]. - The London gold spot rose more than the New York gold this morning, and the spread between New York and London gold narrowed to 24.8 dollars/ounce [2]. 3.2 Policy and Economic Data - Fed Governor Kugler believes that the process of inflation returning to the 2% policy target has stalled, and as long as the risk of rising inflation exists, she supports maintaining the current policy interest rate [3]. - The US ADP employment number in March was 155,000, higher than the expected 115,000 and the previous value of 84,000, which has reduced the expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy [3]. 3.3 Market Outlook and Strategy - The economic and trade risks brought by the US tariff policy are the main trading logic in the market. Even if the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has declined, precious metals will still have price resilience. Gold with stronger risk - aversion attributes will outperform silver [3]. - It is recommended to hold existing long positions. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 722 - 750 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver, it is 8146 - 8545 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3.4 Data Comparison - A detailed comparison of precious metal data on April 2, 2025, and April 1, 2025, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interest, and other indicators of COMEX gold and silver, LBMA gold and silver, SHFE gold and silver, and Au(T + D), Ag(T + D), as well as the holding and trading data of gold and silver ETFs, is provided [6].