欧盟碳市场行情简报（2025年第56期）-2025-04-03

Report Overview - Report Title: EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 56, 2025) [1] - Release Date: April 3, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - Under the shadow of tariffs, EU carbon prices have dropped significantly. It is recommended to operate within a range, with a pressure level of €75 and a support level of €66 [2]. Market Information Summary Primary Market - On April 2, 2025, the EUA auction price was 68.62 euros/ton (a 2.86% increase), the CBAM certificate price was 69.02 euros/ton, the auction volume was 207.25 tons, the bid - coverage ratio was 2.05, and the auction revenue was 14,221 ten - thousand euros. On April 1, 2025, the EUA auction price was 66.71 euros/ton, the CBAM certificate price was 69.02 euros/ton, the auction volume was 324.55 tons, the bid - coverage ratio was 1.55, and the auction revenue was 21,651 ten - thousand euros [3]. Secondary Market - On April 2, 2025, the EUA futures closing price was 68.52 euros/ton (-2.25%), the trading volume was 26,800 lots (-0.88). The spot closing price was 67.00 euros/ton (-2.47%), and the spot trading volume decreased by 2,470 lots. The container shipping carbon cost was 14.81 US dollars/TEU, with a freight cost ratio of 1.12% [4]. Strategy - It is recommended to operate within a range, with a pressure level of €75 and a support level of €66 [2]. Core Logic Bullish Factors - US bipartisan senators are preparing a new round of sanctions against Russia, mainly targeting Russian crude oil exports and its purchasing countries [2]. Bearish Factors - Trump's counter - tariffs exceeded expectations, and the EU has prepared a tough response plan. A US - EU trade war may suppress the European economy and slow down the EU's energy transition. The heating season has ended, temperatures have risen, renewable energy power generation has increased, which is unfavorable for carbon prices. European major stock indices closed down across the board. The latest CoT report shows that last week, investment funds' net long positions decreased sharply [2][3].