下游提货积极，豆粕维持震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the bean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant harvest of soybeans in Brazil this year is exerting increasing pressure on future supply. With sufficient bean meal inventory in domestic oil mills and expected increases in soybean arrivals, the domestic supply side is relatively relaxed. Meanwhile, the livestock industry has adjusted the proportion of bean meal in feed due to declining profits, leading to weak downstream demand and a pessimistic sentiment in the spot market. Future soybean arrivals and policy changes need continuous monitoring [2] - In the domestic corn market, the supply of surplus grain from farmers has progressed rapidly, and some traders are selling their stocks, resulting in relatively limited remaining grain in production areas. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises are facing increased losses, some with high inventory pressures, leading to more starch enterprises scheduling maintenance and a slight decline in the industry's operating rate. Feed enterprises also have relatively high inventories, slowing down their spot purchasing. The market sentiment has become more cautious, with a moderation in the sentiment of hoarding and expecting price increases. Corn prices are expected to remain volatile in the near term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2505 contract was 2832 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton or 1.00% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2505 contract closed at 2552 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton or 1.27% [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3140 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 308, down 38 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3020 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of M05 + 188, down 28; in Guangdong, it was 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of M05 + 128, down 28. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2540 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM05 - 12, down 2 [1] - Market Information: As of March 29, the harvest progress of the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean crop was 81.4%, up from 76.4% a week ago and higher than 71.0% in the same period last year, marking the fifth consecutive week of exceeding the previous year's progress. The five - year average harvest progress for the same period was 67.2%. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso was 99.1% (96.2% last year, five - year average 96.3%); in Paraná, it was 90.0% (87.0% last year, five - year average 68.8%) [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - The large Brazilian soybean harvest is increasing supply pressure. Domestic oil mills have sufficient bean meal inventory, and with more soybeans expected to arrive, the supply side is relaxed. Weak demand from the livestock industry due to profit declines and concerns about future supply are affecting the market [2] 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch 3.2.1 Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2505 contract was 2268 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.62% from the previous day; the corn starch 2505 contract closed at 2639 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton or 0.50% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C05 - 78, down 4 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of CS05 + 11, down 13 [3] - Market Information: As of March 29, the harvest progress of the first - season corn in Brazil's 2024/25 crop was 53.3%, higher than 46.4% in the same period last year and the five - year average of 41.1%. The sowing progress of the second - season corn was 97.9%, compared to 98.7% last year and a five - year average of 92.5%. StoneX recently lowered its forecast for Brazil's first - season corn production to 25.9 million tons (previously 26.53 million tons) and second - season corn production to 101.62 million tons (previously 102.13 million tons) due to poor weather in Rio Grande do Sul [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - On the supply side, farmers in production areas have sold most of their surplus grain, and some traders are also selling, resulting in limited remaining grain. On the demand side, deep - processing enterprises are facing losses and high inventory, leading to more maintenance and a decline in the operating rate. Feed enterprises have high inventories, slowing down their purchasing. Market sentiment has become more cautious, and corn prices are expected to remain volatile [4]