金融期货早班车-2025-04-03

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term sector rotation and uncertainties in US bilateral policies may increase spot market volatility. Given that the IF valuation is still low, it is recommended to allocate at low prices [2]. - Recent short - term capital tightness has eased. With dense macro - side changes, if the economy continues to recover under policy support, long - term interest rates are expected to rise further [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the recent economic fundamentals have a differentiated prosperity. The real estate and infrastructure sectors have weak prosperity, while the manufacturing sector has slightly improved [4]. Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On April 2, most of the four major A - share stock indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05% to 3350.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.09% to 10513.12 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.13% to 2104.63 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 0.16% to 1022.75 points. Market turnover was 992.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 160.1 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - In terms of industry sectors, textile and apparel (+1.45%), beauty care (+1.01%), and communication (+0.97%) led the gains; national defense and military industry (-1.17%), non - ferrous metals (-0.87%), and public utilities (-0.8%) led the losses [1]. - From the perspective of market strength, IM>IC>IF>IH. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2755/218/2425 respectively. Institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 20.24 billion, 7.2 billion, - 8.71 billion, and - 6.04 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +11.79 billion, +0.67 billion, - 3.31 billion, and - 0.34 billion yuan respectively [1]. - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 102.65, 72.69, 5.59, and - 3.18 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were - 14.1%, - 10.62%, - 1.24%, and 1.03% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 10%, 8%, 44%, and 56% respectively. Currently, the discount of small - and medium - cap stock indexes is still large, and although the futures - spot price difference has recovered, it is still at a low level [1]. Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On April 2, treasury bond futures rose across the board. The 2 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.04% to 102.39 points, the 5 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.15% to 105.75 points, the 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.26% to 108.05 points, and the 30 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.86% to 117.18 points [2]. - For the current active 2506 contract, the CTD bonds of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had yield changes of - 1.5bps, - 3.25bps, - 3bps, and - 4.5bps respectively, corresponding net bases of - 0.092, - 0.101, - 0.072, and - 0.012, and IRRs of 2.29%, 2.31%, 2.19%, and 1.86% respectively. Currently, CTD bonds of all maturities have high IRRs and low bases, indicating potential arbitrage opportunities [2]. - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 22.99 billion yuan and withdrew 45.54 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 22.55 billion yuan [2]. - Short - term capital rates have declined. For example, SHIBOR overnight decreased from 1.82 to 1.76, and DR001 decreased from 1.83 to 1.74 [13].