7月：债市走势分化，中短期限信用债收益率下行显著

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Without considering coupon income, in the industry dimension, real estate bonds had a positive alpha with an average price change of 0.09%, leading other industry bonds in gains; transportation bonds had a negative alpha with an average price change of -0.01%, being the only industry bonds with a net price decline. In the term dimension, interest rate bonds with a maturity of over 10 years in March had a certain negative alpha. In the sub - category dimension, commercial bank ordinary bonds had an obvious alpha in March [1][2][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview of Yields of Various Bond Types - In March, the bond market showed a divergent trend, with the yields of short - and medium - term credit bonds declining significantly. For interest rate bonds, yields generally increased, with the average yield of treasury bonds rising by 9BP, that of China Development Bank bonds by 5BP, and that of local government bonds by 12BP. For credit bonds, the yields of all credit bond types with a maturity of 3 years or less declined, and the implied AA - rated 1 - year urban investment bonds had the largest decline in yield, with an average decline of 23BP [2][12]. - As of March 31, short - term interest rate bonds had relatively high historical yield percentile levels. Among them, the 1 - year treasury bonds and local government bonds had their three - year historical yield percentiles rising to 22% and 25% respectively. For credit bonds, low - grade long - term financial bonds had relatively high historical yield percentile levels, with the three - year historical yield percentiles of 7 - year AA - rated bank secondary capital bonds and bank perpetual bonds being 19% and 21% respectively [15]. 2. Industry Alpha Tracking - In the industry dimension, most industry credit bonds generally rose in March, with an average net price change of 0.04%. The real estate industry had a positive alpha, with an average bond price change of 0.09%, leading other industries in gains; the transportation industry had a negative alpha, with an average bond price change of -0.01%, being the only industry with a net price decline [2][18]. - In terms of real estate bonds, public enterprise bonds had an obvious negative alpha in March, with an average price change of -0.41% mainly due to the significant decline of several Vanke bonds. The top - gainers in March were 21 Longhu Expansion MTN001 (Project Income), 21 Vanke 04, and 24 Binjiang Real Estate MTN004, with net prices rising by 12%, 1.7%, and 1.5% respectively; the top - losers were H20 CIFI 2 and H21 CIFI 2, with net prices falling by 5.2% and 5.3% respectively [20]. - For urban investment bonds, those in Beijing and Tianjin had an obvious positive alpha in March, while those in Guangxi had a negative alpha. The average price changes of urban investment bonds in Beijing and Tianjin in March were both 0.11%, being the regions with the largest gains; the average price change of urban investment bonds in Guangxi in March was -0.08%, being the region with the largest decline. The overall price change of urban investment bonds in March was 0.03% [28]. - In terms of financial bonds, there was little difference in the net price changes of financial bonds of various ratings and types in March, and no obvious alpha was observed. The top - gainers were 24 Datong C2, 25 Donghai C1, and 25 Yixin Leasing PPN001, with net prices rising by 0.9%, 0.7%, and 0.6% respectively; the top - losers were 24 Kunpeng Investment MTN004B and 24 Kunpeng Investment MTN003, with net prices falling by 1.6% and 1.9% respectively [30]. 3. Term Alpha Tracking - Interest rate bonds with a maturity of over 10 years in March had a certain negative alpha. The price changes of treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and local government bonds with a maturity of over 10 years in March were -2.03%, -1.35%, and -1.1% respectively, significantly exceeding the decline of other term interest rate bond varieties. The reasons were that the yield increase of ultra - long - term bonds in March was significantly higher than that of short - term varieties, and the duration leverage of ultra - long - term bonds was relatively high, resulting in a more significant price decline due to the yield increase [2][36]. - Among the representative long - term bonds, the 23 Treasury Bond 07 had the largest decline in March, with a monthly decline of 2.64% [40]. 4. Sub - category Alpha Tracking - Commercial bank ordinary bonds had an obvious alpha in March. Data showed that commercial bank ordinary bonds rose by an average of 0.07% in March, while the average price changes of commercial bank sub - bonds and insurance company bonds were negative. The yields of commercial bank bonds and insurance company bonds in March showed obvious term characteristics, with the yields of short - and medium - term varieties declining and those of long - term varieties rising. Compared with other sub - bond varieties, commercial bank ordinary bonds had a relatively short duration, which was the main reason for their positive alpha in March [3][42]. 5. Ranking of Public Bond Funds in March - Short - term pure bond funds led other types of public bond funds in average price change in March. The average price change of short - term pure bond funds in March was 0.23%, that of medium - and long - term pure bond funds was 0.12%, that of hybrid bond - type secondary funds was 0.08%, and that of hybrid bond - type primary funds was 0.08% [3][47].