广金期货策略早餐-2025-04-03

Group 1: Metal and New Energy Materials Sector (Copper) - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The copper price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 79,000 - 81,000 in the short - term and 66,000 - 90,000 in the medium - term. It is recommended to adopt an operation idea of weakening in the shock and a hedging operation idea of buying on dips for copper - using enterprises [1] - Summary by Core Logic: - Macro: The market is closely watching the upcoming US tariff policy, which is expected to have a negative impact on the financial market [1] - Supply: India's refined copper production in the 2024 - 25 fiscal year increased by 7.1% to 497,000 tons. In Q1, Western Mining's mine production of copper increased by 13% year - on - year, and smelting production increased by 57%. Chile's copper production in February 2025 decreased by 5.4% year - on - year to 397,396 tons. Sumitomo Metal Mining plans to produce 433,000 tons of refined copper in the 2025/26 fiscal year, a 2.6% decrease from the previous year [1] - Demand: After the copper price fell below 80,000, the consumption of refined copper rods improved month - on - month, but most of the orders were backlogs. The actual new consumption was less optimistic than expected. In March, the order volume of brass rod enterprises increased slightly month - on - month. The copper cable enterprise's operating rate in March was 73.6%, up 12.71 percentage points month - on - month and 1.72 percentage points year - on - year [2] - Inventory: On April 2, the copper warehouse receipts on the SHFE decreased by 5,624 tons to 130,379 tons [2] - Outlook: The tight supply of global copper concentrates and scrap copper boosts the copper price, but high prices have a negative impact on downstream consumption [2] Group 2: Breeding, Livestock and Soft Commodities Sector (Protein Meal) - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The protein meal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short - term. In the medium - term, soybean meal is stronger in the far - term and weaker in the near - term, and it will be below 3,000 before the expiration of 2505. It is recommended to short soybean meal 2505 on rallies [3] - Summary by Core Logic: - Policy and Market: The USDA's planting area intention report on soybeans met expectations, and the US soybean futures slightly declined but then rose due to a small increase in US soybean oil. There were tariff changes in early March, and the "reciprocal tariff" had no official announcement as of April 2 [3] - International Soybean: Brazil's new - crop soybeans are about to be launched. Conab said 81.4% had been harvested as of the 29th, compared with 71% last year. Multiple institutions estimated Brazil's output to be between 166 million and 171 million tons. ANEC expected Brazil's soybean exports in March to increase slightly to 15.56 million tons. The domestic trade data showed that the total arrival in April would exceed 10 million tons. The USDA's report showed that US farmers' soybean planting area this year was about 83.5 million acres, and the corn planting area was 95.32 million acres, a 5% year - on - year increase [4] - Rapeseed: The recent rapeseed inventory is still sufficient. Statistics Canada estimated that the rapeseed planting area in 2025 would be 21.646 million acres, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease. The Canadian Ministry of Agriculture raised the 25/26 ending inventory forecast from 1 million tons to 2 million tons [4] - Outlook: If the new US tariff is implemented on April 2, agricultural product prices may fluctuate widely. It is still recommended to short near - term soybean meal contracts on rallies after April when South American soybeans arrive in China. Going long on palm oil and short on soybean meal is also an option [5] Group 3: Energy and Chemicals Sector (Petroleum Asphalt) - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: The asphalt is expected to have weak fluctuations in the short - term and turn from weak to strong in the medium - term. It is recommended to short asphalt and long crude oil spreads [6] - Summary by Core Logic: - Supply: This week, the loss of local refineries in asphalt production has decreased, and the domestic asphalt plant operating rate has slightly declined. As of March 28, the domestic weekly asphalt production was 466,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons week - on - week. It is expected that the asphalt production plan in April will decline, and the supply pressure is expected to ease [6] - Demand: The rigid demand for asphalt has improved steadily. The warming temperatures in Shandong and Central China have led to the start of road terminal projects. The previous continuous rise in international oil prices has also driven the release of some speculative demand. However, the operating rate of waterproofing membrane enterprises has shown a weakening trend. As of March 28, the domestic waterproofing membrane enterprise operating rate was 28.0%, a 4.0 - percentage - point week - on - week decline and a 2 - percentage - point decline from the same period last year [7] - Inventory: Due to the quantity - price discount policies of some refineries, downstream traders have stocked up, resulting in a decrease in refinery inventory and an increase in social inventory. As of April 1, the domestic asphalt refinery inventory was 538,000 tons, a decrease of 34,000 tons week - on - week, and the social inventory was 525,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons week - on - week [7] - Cost: Trump's threat of secondary tariffs on the purchase of Iranian and Russian oil and the upcoming reciprocal tariff policy have led to short - term range - bound fluctuations in oil prices. In the long - term, the supply increase expectation is strengthening. The oil price may have a pulse - type increase if geopolitical risks escalate, but the increase space is expected to be limited. The oil price center will move down in the summer [7] - Outlook: In the near term, the asphalt fundamentals are still weak, and the cost has been consolidating after continuous increases. In the long term, due to the lack of guarantee for refinery processing profits, the asphalt supply increase is expected to be limited. The asphalt market may have a small peak season from April to May, and the asphalt crack spread is expected to be weak first and then strong [8]