特朗普对等关税的八大估算

Group 1: Tariff Increases - The overall tariff rate for the U.S. is estimated to increase by 18.2% due to the new reciprocal tariffs[3] - Excluding products under Section 232, the effective tariff increase is approximately 13.9%[3] - The highest tariff rates are imposed on Cambodia (49%), Vietnam (46%), and Iraq (39%), with China facing a 34% increase[3] Group 2: Inflation Impact - The short-term inflation impact in the U.S. from the tariff increase is estimated to be between 0.7% and 1.6%, with a median of 1.2%[4] - In China, the tariffs could lead to a decline in export growth by 3.5% to 11%, potentially reducing the Producer Price Index (PPI) by 0.7% to 2.2%[5] Group 3: Fiscal Revenue - The tariffs are expected to generate annual fiscal revenue of approximately $349.9 billion to $503.5 billion, totaling $3.5 trillion to $5 trillion over the next decade[6] Group 4: GDP Impact - The tariffs may reduce U.S. GDP by approximately 0.2% to 1.5%, considering financial shocks[9] - The impact on the Eurozone GDP is estimated to be between -0.06% and -1%, with a median of around 0.5%[10] Group 5: Export and Economic Structure - The cumulative tariff increase on China amounts to 54% when considering previous tariffs[11] - The share of Chinese exports that still maintain a comparative advantage is projected to drop to 25.2% post-tariff[14]