美国“对等关税”影响分析

Impact on U.S. CPI - The implementation of the "reciprocal tariffs" is expected to increase the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) by approximately 3%[2] - In 2024, the total U.S. imports are projected to be $4.1 trillion, with the newly announced tariffs affecting about$2.5 trillion of imports[2] - The average tariff level on the $2.5 trillion of imports is estimated to reach 34%, while the overall tariff impact on total imports could be around 24%[2] Tariff Details - Tariffs on China will reach 54% when combined with previous tariffs, while tariffs on the EU will be set at 20%[8] - Specific tariffs include 34% on China, 31% on Switzerland, 36% on Thailand, and 46% on Vietnam, among others[8] - A basic tariff of 10% will be applied to all countries, exceeding market expectations[8] Negotiation and Actual Rates - The announced tariffs are considered a maximum limit, with potential for negotiation to lower actual rates[3] - If negotiations with key trading partners succeed, the effective tariff rate could drop to around 3%, leading to a minimal CPI impact of approximately 0.5%[3] - Under neutral scenarios, the actual impact on CPI is estimated to be between 1% and 1.8%[3] Market Outlook - The financial market may have already priced in the negative impacts of the tariffs, suggesting limited room for further declines[4] - The likelihood of significant additional tariff increases is low, as current rates have approached the maximum levels previously suggested by Trump[4] - China's potential domestic policies to stimulate demand may mitigate some negative impacts from U.S. tariffs[4]