全球资产价格的短期调整与中长期展望：特朗普2.0关税落地

Core Insights - The report discusses the implementation of a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" by the Trump administration, effective from April 5, 2025, which raises concerns about short-term "stagflation" risks in the U.S. economy and potential recession fears [2] - The tariffs are expected to increase short-term cost pressures, potentially suppressing demand from both businesses and consumers, leading to heightened "stagflation" concerns and increased uncertainty in the U.S. economic outlook [2] - The report emphasizes the necessity for domestic demand support policies in China to counteract short-term external pressures, with expectations of accelerated fiscal measures and potential monetary easing [2] Summary by Sections Tariff Implementation - On April 2, 2025, President Trump signed two executive orders establishing a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" on all trade partners, with additional personalized tariffs for countries with the largest trade deficits, effective April 9, 2025 [2] - Certain sectors, including steel, aluminum, automobiles, and pharmaceuticals, are exempt from these tariffs, while a 25% tariff on automobiles took effect on April 3, 2025 [2] Economic Impact - The tariffs are likely to exacerbate the existing "stagflation" risks in the U.S. economy, complicating the inflation reduction process and increasing the likelihood of recession [2] - The report notes that the uncertainty surrounding retaliatory measures from other countries and the U.S. economic data's deterioration will further complicate the economic landscape [2] Domestic Policy Response - In response to external pressures, there is an anticipated increase in domestic demand support policies in China, with expectations for accelerated fiscal stimulus and potential monetary easing [2] - The report highlights that the policy expectations for essential consumer goods and the real estate sector are likely to rise [2] Market Implications - Risk assets are expected to face short-term adjustment pressures, with A-shares needing to focus on domestic policy responses for stabilization [2] - The report suggests that essential consumer goods may serve as a safe haven in the A-share market, while mid-term policy responses and stabilization of economic data could boost market confidence [2]