美国对等关税政策点评：关税靴子落地，何去何从？

Tariff Policy Overview - The U.S. has implemented a "10% baseline tariff/personalized reciprocal tariff" framework, with personalized tariffs exceeding market expectations significantly[3] - For China, a proposed reciprocal tariff of 34% would result in a total tariff rate of 64.9% on U.S. imports from China[3] Economic Impact - The tariff policy is expected to impact China's exports and economic growth, necessitating measures to stabilize growth[3] - Historical data indicates that a 1% increase in tariffs leads to a 1.55% decrease in exports to the U.S.[3] - In January-February 2025, China's export growth rate was -19.5%, below the average of 16.9% from 2020 to 2023[3] Asset Allocation Strategies - Investment strategies include bullish positions on gold, bonds, and sectors benefiting from domestic demand[3] - High-tech industries with low price elasticity are expected to benefit in the long term[3] Trade Relations and Risks - The U.S. tariff policy may escalate trade tensions, prompting retaliatory measures from trading partners, potentially leading to a tariff spiral[8] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. presidential actions could lead to frequent policy changes, affecting market stability[8]