股指期货周报-2025-04-03

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - A - share major indices closed down collectively this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index falling more than 1%. The four stock - index futures also closed down collectively, with IF having the largest decline. The market was affected by overseas tariff policy disturbances, and risk appetite declined overall. Market trading activity further shrank compared to last week, and the trading volume once fell below the trillion - yuan level on April 2nd. - Overseas, the US announced a 10% benchmark tariff on all trading partners effective April 5th, and higher reciprocal tariffs on certain trading partners effective April 9th. Domestically, in March, the three major domestic PMI indices continued to rise, indicating that domestic economic activities maintained expansion and the economic recovery trend remained unchanged. - Overall, with the support of stable - growth policies, the economic fundamentals showed a recovery trend. However, due to overseas disturbances and the annual report disclosure period of listed companies, market risk appetite declined, and A - shares consolidated with shrinking volume. In the case of insufficient trading volume, stock indices may still be revised downward, and small - and medium - cap stocks are expected to be more affected due to their weaker risk - resistance ability. The strategy suggests short - selling on rallies with a light position [6][88]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾 - Futures: IF2506 fell 1.21% for the week, IH2506 fell 0.73%, IC2506 fell 0.95%, and IM2506 fell 0.77%. - Spot: The CSI 300 fell 1.37%, the SSE 50 fell 0.65%, the CSI 500 fell 1.19%, and the CSI 1000 fell 1.04% [10]. 3.2消息面概览 - The March PMI data showed that the manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points; and the composite PMI output index was 51.4%, up 0.3 percentage points, which was a neutral impact. - Four major banks announced that the Ministry of Finance would subscribe for new shares in cash, with a total investment of 500 billion yuan, indicating that the issuance of special treasury bonds to replenish the capital of large - scale banks was imminent, which was a neutral - to - positive impact. - The US President signed executive orders on "reciprocal tariffs", setting a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and imposing higher tariffs on some, and also announced a 25% tariff on imported cars effective April 3rd, which was a negative impact [13]. 3.3周度市场数据 - Domestic Main Indices: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.28%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.28%, the STAR 50 fell 1.11%, the SME 100 fell 2.93%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.95% [16]. - External Main Indices (as of Thursday): The S&P 500 rose 1.61%, the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.58%, the Hang Seng Index fell 2.46%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 6.42% [17]. - Industry Sector Performance: Most industry sectors fell. The automobile, power equipment, and household appliance sectors fell significantly, while the public utilities sector rose against the trend. All industry sectors had net outflows of main funds, with a large net outflow from the electronics sector. SHIBOR interest rates declined, indicating relatively loose liquidity. This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 1.958 billion yuan in the secondary market, the market value of restricted - share unlockings was 22.683 billion yuan, and northbound funds had a total trading volume of 467.228 billion yuan. The basis of the IF main contract strengthened slightly, the basis of the IH main contract weakened oscillatingly, the basis of the IC main contract strengthened, and the basis of the IM main contract strengthened oscillatingly [21][25][29][30]. 3.4行情展望与策略 - The economic fundamentals are in a recovery trend under the support of stable - growth policies. However, due to overseas disturbances and the annual report disclosure period, market risk appetite has declined, and A - shares are consolidating with shrinking volume. In the case of insufficient trading volume, stock indices may still be revised downward, and small - and medium - cap stocks are expected to be more affected. The strategy suggests short - selling on rallies with a light position [88].