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上海沿浦(605128):点评报告:骨架毛利率超预期,公司骨架量价齐升与整椅0-1突破值得期待

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projected revenues of 3.3 billion, 4.3 billion, and 4.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 45%, 31%, and 11% [2][4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to reach 250 million, 350 million, and 450 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 82%, 41%, and 27% respectively [2][4]. - The report highlights that the company's gross margin for the skeleton business exceeded expectations, with an average selling price (ASP) increasing by 34% [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from the release of production capacity in Huizhou and Zhengzhou, leading to a rise in both volume and price for its core skeleton business [7]. - The report notes the company's first mention of its automotive seat business, indicating a significant growth opportunity in a market with low domestic replacement rates [7]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is reported at 2.276 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 49.9%, and a net profit of 137 million yuan, also reflecting a growth of 50.31% [4][7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.76, 2.48, and 3.14 yuan respectively [4][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 43.33 in 2024 to 13.30 by 2027, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [4][8].