全球AI工业+能源：特朗普“对等关税”落地，美国工业制造本土化是否可行性

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on aerospace and defense companies with significant production capacity in the U.S. such as VSE, HWM, LOAR, and Raytheon Technologies, as well as electrical machinery companies like GE Vernova, Eaton, and Powell Industries, and U.S. natural gas pipeline companies like Targa Resources, Aris Water, Kinder Morgan, and Williams due to increasing energy demand [8][17]. Core Insights - Trump's "Reciprocal Tariffs" have been implemented, imposing a 10% basic tariff on all imported goods, with higher tariffs on countries with significant trade deficits with the U.S. [12][13]. - The tariff policy aims to reduce the U.S. trade deficit and revitalize domestic manufacturing, impacting electrical machinery companies significantly, regardless of their domestic or international production capacity [13][14]. - Major companies are responding to the tariff environment by announcing substantial investments in U.S. production capacity, with Schneider planning to invest over $700 million, Siemens $285 million, and Hitachi Energy over $250 million by 2027 [13][14]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The reciprocal tariff policy affects a wide range of electrical machinery companies, with varying impacts based on their production locations. Companies with significant U.S. production capacity may face less impact compared to those relying on overseas production [13][15]. - The tariffs are expected to push up prices, and companies' ability to pass on these costs will be crucial for maintaining profit margins [15]. Feasibility of U.S. Manufacturing - The feasibility of relocating manufacturing to the U.S. is questioned due to potential supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and high costs associated with establishing new facilities [14]. - The U.S. infrastructure is deemed inadequate for supporting a self-sufficient manufacturing environment, which may hinder the return of manufacturing to the U.S. [14]. Sector-Specific Insights - The aerospace and defense sectors are less affected by tariffs due to their domestic production capabilities and strong supply chain networks, allowing companies like HWM and VSE to maintain stable development [16]. - The report highlights the importance of strategic exemptions for key defense materials and the flexibility to find domestic suppliers, which mitigates some cost pressures from tariffs [16].