CMS·2025-04-03 12:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the securities industry, indicating that performance elasticity is expected in 2025 due to a bullish market environment and base effect from previous years [1][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the securities industry is experiencing a recovery in revenue and net profit, driven by a rebound in equity markets and a strong bond market [1][9]. - The overall revenue for the 21 listed securities firms reached 369.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, while net profit rose by 15% to 113.9 billion [14][16]. - The report emphasizes the structural differentiation in business performance, with proprietary trading showing significant growth while investment banking revenues are under pressure [24][39]. Summary by Sections Q4 Performance and Recovery - Q4 performance has significantly contributed to the annual recovery, with a quarterly revenue of 107.5 billion, up 30% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter [16]. - The average return on equity (ROE) for the 21 listed firms was 5.65%, an increase of 0.38 percentage points year-on-year, with leverage ratios rising to 5.14 times [28][29]. Business Segment Analysis - Brokerage Business: Brokerage income reached 77 billion, a 9% increase year-on-year, driven by retail investor participation [30][37]. - Investment Banking: Investment banking revenue was 22.1 billion, down 28% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market [39][47]. - Asset Management: Asset management income was 36.1 billion, a slight decrease of 3% year-on-year, but the scale of managed assets stabilized at 6.1 trillion, up 3% [50][54]. Annual Outlook - The report forecasts total revenue for the securities industry in 2025 to be 468.6 billion, a 4% increase year-on-year, with net profit expected to reach 180.4 billion, an 11% increase [9][13]. - The report suggests that the regulatory environment remains supportive, with expectations of continued inflow of medium to long-term capital into the market [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-performing stocks such as CITIC Securities, CICC, Guotai Junan, and GF Securities, indicating a significant potential for valuation recovery [9][10].