“关税日”后的海外宏观逻辑：“对等”概念存预期差，滞胀忧虑强化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US announced more details of the reciprocal tariff policy on April 3, with the overall intensity exceeding market expectations, and the concept of "reciprocal tariff" differing from the previous market understanding [4]. - The calculation parameter of the "reciprocal tariff" is anchored to the "trade deficit" rather than the "tariff" of the trading partner, which may make it difficult for countries to negotiate with the US [8][11]. - The weighted average tariff rate of the US on China has sharply increased to 71.3%, and it is estimated that China's exports to the US will decrease by 45.6%, total exports will decrease by 12.3%, and real GDP will decline by 1.8% [15]. - In the second quarter, the main macro - and large - asset allocation logic has shifted to stagflation [16]. - The US economic growth forecast for 2025 is adjusted downward to 1.9%, and inflation growth is continuously raised to 3.0%, with a significant divergence between "subjective and objective" and "short - and long - term" inflation [19]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trump's Reciprocal Tariff Details and Time - line - Trump plans to set a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on global trading partners on April 5, and impose "reciprocal tariffs" on 60 countries with large trade deficits on April 9. The US average external tariff level will increase from 2.3% at the end of 2024 to 23%, theoretically dragging down GDP growth by 2.4% and increasing the inflation level by 1.7% [6]. - Many countries have introduced counter - tariff measures, such as the EU imposing tariffs on 26 billion euros of goods (including 8 billion euros of steel and aluminum), Canada imposing tariffs on various products worth billions of Canadian dollars, and China imposing tariffs on coal, liquefied natural gas, etc. [3]. 3.2 "Reciprocal" Concept - The market expected the "reciprocal tariff" to be based on the average tariff level of each country on the US, plus non - tariff trade barriers. However, the official calculation formula is based on the trade deficit, which may make it difficult for countries to negotiate with the US [11]. 3.3 US Tariffs on China - The weighted average tariff rate of the US on China has reached 71.3%, exceeding the previously announced 60%. It is estimated that China's exports to the US will decrease by 45.6%, total exports will decrease by 12.3%, and real GDP will decline by 1.8% [15]. 3.4 Market Impact - Macro and Asset Allocation Logic: The main logic in the second quarter has shifted to stagflation. Different quarters from 2024 to 2025 have different macro themes and asset allocation strategies [16][17]. - Economic Data: The "hard data" of the US economy has shown signs of stabilization and rebound, but the "soft data" is still weak. Key economic data in early April, such as non - farm payrolls, CPI, PPI, etc., are highly concerned [32]. - Market Reaction - Commodity Market: Gold prices are strong, the Bloomberg Commodity Index has declined, and the gold - silver ratio has risen significantly, in line with stagflation characteristics [33]. - Equity Market: Global equities are under pressure, especially in the US. The "stagflation" trading is evident in the US stock market [35][37]. - Bond Market: The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds has declined rapidly, and the yield curve has flattened. The target yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds is further lowered [39][47]. - Exchange - Rate Market: The US dollar has lost its safe - haven status, and the US dollar index has fallen significantly. The target level of the US dollar is further lowered [40][42].