电力设备与新能源行业点评报告：特朗普“对等关税”政策解读

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy sectors [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the challenges posed by high tariff barriers, particularly the "reciprocal tariff" policy introduced by Trump, which has resulted in a comprehensive tax rate exceeding 100% for exports to the U.S. This situation significantly hampers direct exports from China to the U.S. [6][9]. - The report emphasizes the need for localization in the photovoltaic sector, as the U.S. market is expected to cool down due to unstable policies and a lack of domestic manufacturing capacity [9][14]. - The report identifies potential opportunities in key materials for lithium batteries, driven by U.S. policies that favor local sourcing and processing of critical minerals [22][23]. - The storage industry is anticipated to experience a short-term surge in exports due to favorable conditions, despite the overall negative sentiment towards renewable energy from the Trump administration [26]. - The report suggests that companies with established or planned production capacities in North America and Mexico will have a competitive advantage, particularly in the transformer export market [28][34]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaics - The report indicates that the U.S. solar market may decline significantly, with a projected drop of up to 46% by 2027 due to policy instability and reduced investment enthusiasm [9][14]. - It notes that the cumulative installed solar capacity in the U.S. during Trump's first term grew at a CAGR of 21%, lower than previous administrations [11]. Lithium Batteries - The report discusses the impact of tariffs on lithium battery exports, predicting a comprehensive tax rate nearing 60% due to the combination of existing tariffs and new reciprocal tariffs [22]. - It highlights that the demand for key battery materials may increase as U.S. policies evolve to favor local sourcing [23][24]. Energy Storage - The report anticipates a "window of opportunity" for energy storage exports, driven by the ongoing development of the U.S. energy grid and the need for storage solutions [26]. - It emphasizes that the impact of new tariffs on storage products is relatively manageable, and the North American market remains a key focus for Chinese companies [26]. Electric Power Equipment - The report notes a significant increase in China's exports of liquid transformers to the U.S., with a CAGR of 186% from 2021 to 2024 [28]. - It suggests that companies like Jinpan Technology and Igor, which have established manufacturing bases in North America, will be less affected by new tariffs [34].