越南跟踪点评:美国加征最高46%关税,承压但仍有缓释空间

Trade Relations and Tariffs - The U.S. has imposed a maximum tariff rate of 46% on Vietnam, which is the third-largest trade deficit partner of the U.S. as of 2024[1][6] - The goods trade deficit between the U.S. and Vietnam reached approximately $123.5 billion in 2024, an increase of 18.1% from 2023, equating to a rise of $18.9 billion[1][6] - Vietnam's exports to the U.S. include high-value-added industrial products, with 15 categories exceeding $1 billion in exports, including computers and components ($23.2 billion), machinery ($22 billion), and textiles ($16.2 billion)[1][6] Strategic Measures by Vietnam - Vietnam is implementing measures to reduce its trade surplus with the U.S., including a delegation led by the Deputy Prime Minister to strengthen bilateral economic cooperation[2][7] - Tariffs on U.S. products have been reduced, such as LNG from 5% to 2%, automotive tariffs from 45%-64% to 32%, and ethanol from 10% to 5%[2][8] Domestic Market Resilience - Chinese enterprises focusing on the Vietnamese domestic market are less affected by U.S. tariffs, as their revenue primarily comes from local operations[3][9] - Establishing localized supply chains enhances resilience against external risks for businesses operating in Vietnam[3][9] Consumption Growth in Vietnam - Vietnam's GDP is projected to reach $476.3 billion in 2024, with a per capita GDP of $4,700, reflecting a five-year CAGR of 7.3% and 6.4% respectively[4][10] - The total retail goods and consumer services are expected to grow by 9.0% in 2024, indicating a high level of market activity[4][10] - Vietnam's population exceeds 100 million, with a median age of 34 years, and 23% of the population aged 20-34, indicating strong consumption potential[4][11]