继续做波段，把握利率下行机会

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on the bond market dynamics of enterprise perpetual bonds, financial perpetual and subordinated bonds, and ABS in March 2025, aiming to provide investors with reference [9]. Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The overall performance of the bond market in the second quarter is expected to be positive, with the 10-year Treasury bond yield likely to move from the right side to the middle of the 1.6% - 1.9% range [5]. - It is recommended to continue trading in bands and appropriately invest in short-term bonds of urban and rural commercial banks [5]. Group 4: Enterprise Perpetual Bonds 4.1 Primary Market - In March, 107 enterprise perpetual bonds were issued, raising a total of 111.4 billion yuan, a 56% increase from the previous month. However, the repayment scale increased to 136 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 24.6 billion yuan, the first net outflow this year [5][10]. - The issuance scale of AAA-rated high-quality issuers decreased slightly, and the issuance costs of AAA, AA+, and AA-rated bonds increased by 24bp, 41bp, and 8bp respectively [10]. - The top three industries in terms of issuance volume were urban investment, building decoration, and public utilities, while the comprehensive industry dropped to the fourth place [5][10][13]. - Among the newly issued bonds in March, 63 were subordinated bonds, accounting for 59% of the total number and 67% of the total scale [15]. 4.2 Secondary Market - In March, the short-term yields of industrial and urban investment perpetual bonds fluctuated downward, and the short-term spreads narrowed significantly, while the long-term yields showed no obvious downward trend [21]. - The spreads of urban investment and industrial perpetual bonds fluctuated slightly in March, with the spreads of medium and low-grade, medium and long-term urban investment bonds tending to widen slightly [23]. - The trading volume and turnover rate of enterprise perpetual bonds increased significantly in March. The top three industries in terms of trading volume were urban investment, public utilities, and building decoration [5][30]. - No new cases of non-redemption of enterprise perpetual bonds were reported in March [34]. Group 5: Financial Perpetual and Subordinated Bonds 5.1 Primary Market - The issuance volume of financial perpetual bonds continued to increase in March, reaching the highest level in the first quarter. A total of 7 financial perpetual bonds were issued, raising 63.5 billion yuan, with a net financing outflow of 30.7 billion yuan [35]. - The issuance of financial subordinated bonds increased significantly, with banks contributing the main share. In March, 59.2 billion yuan of financial subordinated bonds were issued, with a net financing inflow of 27 billion yuan [39]. 5.2 Secondary Market - In March, the spreads of most financial institutions narrowed slightly, with the spreads of AA+-rated banks narrowing the most [44]. - The spreads of brokerage subordinated bonds narrowed significantly, while the spreads of TLAC bonds remained stable [48]. - The trading volume and turnover rate of bank perpetual bonds and secondary capital bonds increased significantly in March [52][56]. - No new cases of non-redemption of bank secondary capital bonds were reported in March, but investors are still advised to be cautious about the non-redemption risk of weak urban and rural commercial banks [60]. Group 6: ABS 6.1 Primary Market - In March, 189 ABS projects were issued, raising a total of 171.7 billion yuan, a significant increase from February in terms of both the number of projects and the total financing amount [61]. - Personal consumption loan ABS had the largest issuance scale, followed by financial leasing and microloan ABS [61]. - The issuance scale of real estate ABS increased in March, with a total of 3.4 billion yuan issued, mainly including CMBS and supply chain ABS [63]. - High-grade bonds still dominated the ABS market in March, with AAAsf-rated bonds accounting for 94% of the issuance scale. The issuance costs of short-term bonds increased significantly [64]. 6.2 Secondary Market - In March, the short and medium-term yields of ABS decreased significantly, while the long-term yields remained flat. The short and medium-term credit spreads also narrowed [65]. - The secondary trading volume of ABS increased significantly in March, reaching 185.5 billion yuan, almost doubling from the previous month. The top three types of underlying assets in terms of trading volume were Reits, personal consumption loans, and accounts receivable ABS [67]. - Some Sunac ABS were traded at a significant discount in March [67].