Accelerating Liquid Fuel Reduction in West Africa

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the significant reliance on liquid fuels for electricity generation in West Africa, which imposes high costs and financial burdens on utilities [9][20] - It emphasizes the potential for enhanced regional power trade as a cost-effective solution to reduce dependence on liquid fuels and improve financial sustainability [10][28] - The report outlines practical steps for countries to reduce liquid fuel reliance, even in the absence of regional integration [57] Summary by Sections Key Findings & Recommendations - Liquid fuels contribute to high electricity costs, averaging US$ 0.26/kWh, and account for 73% of regional generation costs [9][20] - Regional power trade could triple from 9.7 TWh to 29.5 TWh by 2030, leading to an 82% reduction in liquid fuel generation [9][32] - Improved dispatch and management of existing grid assets can further reduce liquid fuel use [9][10] - Contractual terms for liquid fuel generation often create financial vulnerabilities for utilities [9][10] Liquid Fuels in West Africa's Current Power Generation Landscape - In 2022, liquid fuels provided 4.5 GW of capacity and generated 12.7 TWh of electricity across 14 West African countries [11][12] - Liquid fuels account for 14% of the total energy mix and 16% of installed power capacity in the region [17] - The average cost of electricity service is correlated with reliance on liquid fuels, with fuel costs comprising 73% of annual power generation expenses [20][21] Liquid Fuel Phase-down through Regional Power Trade - The West African Power Pool (WAPP) has the potential to significantly reduce liquid fuel dependence through enhanced regional trade [28][55] - The modeling indicates that full regional trade could lead to a reduction of 20 million tons of CO2 emissions by 2030 [47][55] - Addressing barriers such as poor financial performance of utilities and historical nonpayment issues is crucial for deeper integration [56] Developing Domestic Options for Near-term Liquid Fuel Reduction - Countries can optimize existing grid assets and improve management of liquid fuel contracts to reduce reliance on liquid fuels [57][62] - Dispatch optimization studies can lead to significant reductions in liquid fuel usage without major new infrastructure investments [62][63] - Scaling up alternatives to liquid fuels, including renewable energy sources, is essential for long-term sustainability [57][74]