3月美国非农就业数据点评：非农超预期，但难解关税忧虑

Employment Data - In March 2025, the U.S. added 228,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the forecast of 140,000 jobs, with the previous month's figure revised down to 117,000 jobs[5] - The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, higher than the expected 4.1%, but only a slight increase of approximately 0.013% from February[2][5] Sector Performance - Job gains were primarily driven by improvements in the service sector, which added 107,000 jobs, particularly in leisure and hospitality (+60,000) and retail (+26,000)[6] - The goods-producing sector saw a decrease in jobs, with manufacturing losing 7,000 jobs, and construction and mining also experiencing declines[6] Wage Growth and Inflation - Private sector hourly wages increased by 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with expectations, while year-on-year growth fell to 3.8%, below the anticipated 4.0%[6] - Wage growth in goods-producing industries rose to 0.5%, with significant increases in mining, construction, and durable goods manufacturing[6] Economic Outlook - Despite strong employment data, concerns about economic growth persist, exacerbated by the unexpected implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration[2][6] - Market expectations indicate a potential cumulative interest rate cut of 125 basis points within 2025, up from a previous estimate of 75 basis points[6][23] Risks - There is a risk of unexpected inflation due to the implementation of tariffs, which could lead to a cycle of retaliatory measures from trade partners, further increasing inflationary pressures[25]