资金面迎来宽松期

Liquidity Overview - In the first week of April, liquidity has shown a self-driven easing trend, with DR007 and R007 weekly averages down by 7bp and 18bp respectively, and overnight rates gradually falling to 1.6%[1] - The banking system's net lending remained high, with daily net lending exceeding 30,000 billion CNY from March 31 to April 3, peaking at 34,700 billion CNY on the cross-quarter day[1][12] Market Expectations - Looking ahead to the week of April 7-11, liquidity is expected to remain loose due to the absence of tax payments and a significant drop in government bond net payments to -490.6 billion CNY, the lowest level since 2023[2][16] - The tax filing deadline has been postponed to April 18, which will limit the impact of tax-related liquidity fluctuations during this week[2][16] Open Market Operations - From April 7-11, the central bank's reverse repos will mature at 763.4 billion CNY, with a total of 9,134 billion CNY in open market operations due[3][38] - The central bank net withdrew 501.9 billion CNY from March 31 to April 3, with reverse repos totaling 684.9 billion CNY and maturing repos at 1,186.8 billion CNY[3][37] Bill Market Trends - As of April 3, the 1M discount bill rate dropped significantly from 2.00% to 1.42%, while the 3M rate fell by 65bp to 1.05%[4][41] - Major banks net purchased 118.7 billion CNY in bills, with a cumulative net purchase of 127 billion CNY from April 1-3[4][41] Government Bond Activity - The net payment for government bonds fell sharply to -490.6 billion CNY for the week of April 7-11, down from 546.1 billion CNY the previous week[5][46] - The planned issuance for government bonds during this period is set at 201.9 billion CNY, all of which are local bonds[5][46] Interbank Certificate of Deposit - The pressure from maturing interbank certificates of deposit increased, with 5,497 billion CNY maturing from April 7-11, a significant rise from 1,011 billion CNY the previous week[6][51] - The weighted average issuance rate for interbank certificates of deposit decreased to 1.89%, down 4bp from the previous week[6][51]