2025年3月美国非农数据点评兼光大宏观周报：强非农不改市场定价衰退-2025-04-05

Employment Data - In March 2025, the U.S. added 228,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 135,000 and the previous value of 117,000 (revised from 151,000) [12] - The unemployment rate in March 2025 rose to 4.2%, higher than both the expected and previous rate of 4.1% [12] - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.8% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.9% and the previous 4.0% [12] Sector Performance - Retail and healthcare sectors saw strong job growth, with retail adding 24,000 jobs and healthcare adding 78,000 jobs in March 2025 [23] - The leisure and hospitality sector also rebounded, adding 43,000 jobs, a significant improvement from the previous month's loss of 17,000 jobs [24] Economic Outlook - Despite the strong non-farm data, concerns about economic recession due to tariffs have led the market to anticipate four rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 [19] - Following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 14 basis points to 4.06%, further declining to around 4.0% after the non-farm data release [19] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5% in March 2025, indicating a slight rise in employment willingness among younger demographics [27] - The U6 unemployment rate, which includes those working part-time for economic reasons, decreased to 7.9% from 8.0% in February, suggesting resilience in the part-time job market [33]