白糖周报：基本面支撑，郑糖继续冲高-2025-04-06

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic sugar price is expected to continue rising due to the support of fundamentals, with potential upside. The international sugar price is also expected to remain strong due to a tight supply - demand pattern [58] - The operation suggestion is to adopt a short - term bullish approach [59] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) sugar futures continued to rise this week, with a weekly increase of 1.49%. ICE sugar futures rebounded, with a weekly increase of 2.78% [9] 3.1.2 Spot Price and Basis Trends - In the 2024/25 sugar season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in February was 48.9%, 1.36 percentage points faster than the same period last year [15] 3.1.3 National Production and Sales Situation - Data not elaborated in the summary part 3.1.4 Sugar Import Situation - From January to February, imports were 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.11 million tons. Based on the ICE sugar May contract price of 19 cents per pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 5,188 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 6,615 yuan per ton; the in - quota import cost from Thailand was 5,268 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 6,719 yuan per ton [25] 3.1.5 Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar season, the industrial inventory in February was 4.9645 million tons, an increase of 795,100 tons compared with the same period last year [28] 3.1.6 ZCE Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of ZCE sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 27,410, a decrease of 560 compared with the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 27,410, and the valid forecast was 0 [36] 3.1.7 Brazil's Production Progress - In the first half of March, the cumulative crushing volume was 617 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.94%, and the sugar production was 39.983 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.34% [40] 3.1.8 Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 48.09%, compared with 48.96% in the same period last year [42] 3.1.9 Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - Brazil's sugar exports in February were 1.825 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.44%. In the 2024/25 sugar season, Brazil's cumulative exports were 33.405 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65% [45] 3.1.10 International Main Producing Areas' Weather Conditions - Rainfall in Brazil's main producing areas increased, alleviating the relatively dry situation compared with the same period. Precipitation in India increased slightly [54][55] 3.2 Market Outlook 3.2.1 Domestic Market - Domestic sugar prices are oscillating upwards, reaching new highs. It is driven by the strong performance of the international market and supported by domestic fundamentals. The sugar sales progress is faster than the same period, imports are tightened, and the pressure on domestic sugar mills is light, with firm spot prices. There may still be room for sugar prices to rise [58] 3.2.2 International Market - The northern hemisphere is at the end of the sugar - making season, but there is still a dispute over India's production. If India's production is lower than expected, there may be imports in the third quarter. Brazil's production has started, and the initial crushing progress has a significant short - term impact on the market. The overall supply - demand pattern is tight, and international sugar prices are expected to remain strong [58]