ANHUI EXPRESSWAY(600012) 东兴证券·2025-04-06 03:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [4][8]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 7.092 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.94%, primarily driven by construction period income. However, toll revenue is expected to decline by 5.23% to 3.830 billion yuan due to the expansion of the Xuanguang Expressway [1][2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.669 billion yuan for 2024, a slight increase of 0.55%, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items is expected to decrease by 3.39% to 1.677 billion yuan [1][3]. - The company is expected to see significant profit contributions from the acquisition of new road assets and the completion of the Xuanguang and Guangci Expressway expansion, which is anticipated to enhance traffic flow and toll revenue in 2025 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company's toll revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3.830 billion yuan, down from 4.25 billion yuan in 2023, primarily due to the Xuanguang Expressway expansion [1]. - The gross margin for the expressway business in 2024 is expected to be 61.77%, slightly down by 1.41 percentage points from the previous year, which is considered slightly better than market expectations [2]. Financial Performance - The report forecasts net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.932 billion yuan, 2.004 billion yuan, and 1.860 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.17 yuan, 1.21 yuan, and 1.12 yuan [4][9]. - The company has a strong dividend policy, with a projected dividend of 0.60 yuan per share for 2024, representing 60% of net profit [4]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has successfully completed the acquisition of the Sihu and Fuzhou Expressways, which are expected to contribute over 120 million yuan in annual profit starting in the second quarter of 2025 [3]. - The report highlights the company's strong dividend-paying capability and positive outlook for future performance, positioning it as an attractive high-dividend stock [4].