宏观经济宏观周报：高频指标表现弱于季节性，但投资景气继续上升-2025-04-06

Economic Growth Indicators - The Guosen High-frequency Macro Diffusion Index A turned negative, while Index B slightly declined, indicating a weak trend[1] - Investment sector sentiment continues to rise, while the real estate sector shows a decline[1] - Seasonal comparison shows Index B typically rises by an average of 0.17 weekly post-Spring Festival, but this week it fell by 0.14, underperforming historical averages[1] Asset Price Predictions - Current domestic interest rates are low, while the Shanghai Composite Index is high, suggesting a potential downward adjustment[1] - The predicted ten-year government bond yield for the week of April 11, 2025, is expected to rise, while the Shanghai Composite Index is anticipated to decline[1] - The deviation between predicted and actual ten-year government bond yields reached a historical high of 85 basis points, indicating significant divergence from the macroeconomic fundamentals[18] Price Tracking - Food and non-food prices both increased this week, with March CPI food prices expected to decline by approximately 1.5% month-on-month[2] - The overall CPI is projected to decrease by about 0.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year recovery to -0.1%[2] - March PPI is expected to show a month-on-month decline of about 0.1%, remaining flat year-on-year at -2.2%[11]