Leaderdrive(SH:688017) Changjiang Securities·2025-04-06 04:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [13]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading domestic manufacturer of harmonic reducers, holding approximately 21% of the domestic market share in 2023, second only to the global leader Harmonic Drive [3][9]. - The demand for harmonic reducers in China's industrial robot market is expected to reach 783,700 units in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.1%. By 2026, the total demand for reducers in the domestic industrial robot market is projected to exceed 2.7 million units [3]. - The company benefits from trends such as domestic substitution and downstream cost reduction, along with its technological, cost, and capacity advantages, positioning it as a key player in the domestic harmonic reducer market [3][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of experience in the harmonic transmission field, with its main products including harmonic reducers, precision components, mechatronic actuators, and intelligent automation equipment. In 2023, harmonic reducers accounted for 89.09% of its revenue [9][27]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company faced performance pressure, with a projected revenue of 386 million yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.34% year-on-year increase. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 32.29% to 57 million yuan [9][29]. - The company's revenue growth is expected to improve in 2024, with a relatively stable operating situation in the first half of the year and a recovery trend in the third quarter [9][29]. Market Dynamics - The harmonic reducer market is expanding, with the company expected to benefit from the increasing demand for humanoid robots. The global humanoid robot market is anticipated to see significant growth, with major companies planning mass production by 2025 [10][11]. - The company has established a strong customer base, including well-known domestic and international brands, which enhances its market position [45]. Technological and Competitive Advantages - The company has developed its own P-type gear theory, allowing it to bypass foreign technology barriers and achieve competitive product parameters comparable to international standards. Its gross margin has consistently exceeded that of Harmonic Drive by over 10% in recent years [11][39]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with plans to increase harmonic reducer capacity to 1 million units per year and mechatronic actuator capacity to 200,000 units per year [11][55]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 83 million yuan and 137 million yuan in 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to price-earnings ratios of 323 and 195 times [11].