关注下游轮胎需求的阶段性示弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In April, the global natural rubber production is still in the seasonal off - peak, with low supply pressure. China's Yunnan and Hainan are starting to harvest, but attention should be paid to the climate in these areas. The production of butadiene rubber is still at a loss, and the production profit improvement space is limited. The downstream tire demand is in the seasonal peak, but may decline month - on - month, especially with the US tariff increase suppressing China's tire exports. The domestic all - steel tire production profit is being compressed, and the probability of a decline in the all - steel tire operating rate increases [2]. - The current valuation of RU is neutral, NR is moderately overvalued, and BR is moderately undervalued [13]. Summary by Directory 3 - month Rubber Market Review - In March, the price of natural rubber decreased significantly. The main RU contract dropped by 6.49% and the main NR contract dropped by 6.65%. The inventory in Qingdao port increased slightly. The price of butadiene rubber was weak, affected by the decline of upstream butadiene prices and natural rubber prices. The production profit of butadiene rubber recovered slowly and was near the break - even point. The supply and demand of butadiene rubber were both weak [12]. Current Valuation Judgment - RU is neutral. The absolute value of the non - standard price difference of RU is at a low level, and the standard product basis is strengthening year - on - year. The domestic price is relatively undervalued, but there is an expectation of price decline due to the start of production in the main domestic producing areas. NR is moderately overvalued, with a weak basis and shrinking import profit. BR is moderately undervalued, and the loss situation may be reversed with the decline of butadiene prices [13]. April Rubber Supply and Demand Analysis Global Still in Seasonal Off - peak, China Enters the Initial Harvest Stage - In April, the global natural rubber production is in the seasonal off - peak. China's Yunnan has started harvesting, and Hainan will start in April. Attention should be paid to the climate in Yunnan and Hainan. According to historical data, the global production in April is at a low level, and this year's production is expected to increase month - on - month. The production of butadiene rubber is at a loss, and the production profit improvement space is limited. There are still two sets of equipment for maintenance in April and May, reducing the overall supply pressure [23][37][62]. - China's imports in April are affected by downstream demand, trader arbitrage demand, and alternative planting import rhythm. Although downstream demand is in the peak season and alternative planting imports are expected to increase seasonally, due to the low non - standard price difference of RU, the overall import may not increase. Seasonally, Thailand's exports to China usually decline in April, and this year's domestic imports are also expected to decline month - on - month. The imports from Vietnam, Cote d'Ivoire, and Indonesia are also difficult to increase [40][48][62]. - In 2024, China's butadiene rubber exports performed well, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 31.78% by December. It is expected that the exports will increase month - on - month in April [60]. Domestic Demand is Still in the Seasonal Peak, Pay Attention to the Impact of Tariff Increases - Overseas demand may decline seasonally in April. The automobile sales in various countries show a seasonal decline in April. The US truck sales improved, while the European passenger car sales were still sluggish. China's automobile sales maintained a high growth rate, driven by domestic stimulus policies [63]. - Domestically, the macro data improved. The excavator sales in February increased year - on - year, and the social financing in January - February also improved. The real estate data improved, and the investment in the automobile manufacturing industry increased, which is beneficial to the automobile production and sales. The tire demand is divided into supporting, replacement, and export. Although April is the traditional peak season, the tire factory's production may be restricted by the increasing inventory pressure and global tariff increases [74][78][81]. - The domestic tire exports are expected to increase seasonally, but the US tariff increase may suppress the all - steel tire exports. The industrial demand in April is in the peak season, which is beneficial to the replacement market. However, the tire inventory is increasing, and the operating rate may decline. The overall downstream demand may decline month - on - month in April, especially if the tariff policy does not ease [91][97][104]. Weak Supply and Demand, Domestic Inventory Accumulation Pressure Remains - In April, China's natural rubber imports may remain stable, and the supply mainly comes from domestic production. The production in Yunnan and Hainan is expected to increase, but the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory will face pressure again [105]. - For butadiene rubber, the supply is expected to decline due to equipment maintenance, and the demand is also weak. The price will fluctuate with the upstream butadiene raw materials, and the inventory may remain unchanged [109]. Views and Strategies - For RU and NR, cautious short - selling hedging is recommended. In April, the domestic natural rubber supply is expected to increase, while the demand is weak, and there is inventory accumulation pressure. For BR, a neutral strategy is recommended. In April, the supply of butadiene rubber is expected to decline, and the demand is also weak. The price will fluctuate with the upstream butadiene raw materials [3][111].