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中科飞测(688361):高研发投入利润短期承压,受益“国产替代”产品放量可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 54.94% year-on-year, reaching 1.38 billion RMB in 2024, although it faced a net loss of 0.12 billion RMB, a decline of 108.21% compared to the previous year due to high R&D and share-based payment expenses [1]. - The semiconductor equipment market in mainland China is projected to grow by 33.7% in 2024, reaching 49 billion USD, positioning it as the largest semiconductor equipment market globally. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this growth due to strong domestic demand for equipment [1][2]. - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment, reaching 0.498 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 118.17%, which is higher than its revenue growth rate. This investment is aimed at advancing its technology and product offerings [2]. - The company has developed a comprehensive range of detection equipment, with over 300 units of non-graphical wafer defect detection equipment delivered to more than 100 clients, ensuring a competitive edge in the market [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.037 billion RMB, 2.949 billion RMB, and 3.833 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 48%, 45%, and 30% [3][6]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 0.204 billion RMB, 0.346 billion RMB, and 0.594 billion RMB, with growth rates of 70% and 72% for the following years [3][6].