Red Star Macalline(601828) 国投证券·2025-04-06 07:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate-A" with a 12-month target price of 3.62 CNY [6]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with total revenue at 7.82 billion CNY, down 32.08% year-on-year, and a net profit of -2.98 billion CNY, down 34.61% year-on-year [2][3]. - Despite the short-term pressure on core business, cash flow improved in Q4 2024, turning positive at 748 million CNY, indicating reduced financial pressure [3]. - The company is actively responding to government policies promoting "old-for-new" exchanges, which boosted sales in Q4 2024, with 724,000 orders and sales amounting to 6.69 billion CNY [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company operated 77 self-operated malls and 257 managed malls, with self-operated business revenue at 5.36 billion CNY, down 21.0% year-on-year, accounting for 68.5% of total revenue [3]. - The average occupancy rate for self-operated malls was 83.0%, with over 80% located in prime locations in first and second-tier cities [3]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 58.26%, an increase of 1.52 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was -40.79%, a decrease of 20.20 percentage points year-on-year [10][11]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its "3+Star Ecosystem" strategy, focusing on high-end appliances and home decoration, with plans to establish 100 high-end appliance stores nationwide over the next two years [4]. - The company has also entered the automotive sector, collaborating with 25 car brands and expanding its operational area to 164,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 60,000 square meters [4]. Future Outlook - The company aims to gradually recover profitability, with projected revenues of 8.39 billion CNY, 8.78 billion CNY, and 9.12 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 7.21%, 4.70%, and 3.90% [12]. - The net profit is expected to improve, with estimates of -290 million CNY in 2025, turning profitable in 2026 with a net profit of 372 million CNY [12].