Xinda Securities·2025-04-06 08:26Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Report's Core View - Currently in the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with the resonance of fundamentals and policies, it is a good time to allocate the coal sector at a low level. The coal supply bottleneck is expected to last until the 15th Five - Year Plan, and coal prices are expected to remain high. The coal sector is a high - performance, high - cash, and high - dividend asset, and the team continues to be bullish on coal and suggests bottom - up allocation [3][11][12] Summary According to the Directory I. This Week's Core View and Key Focus - Core View: Coal industry fundamentals show supply - demand balance with potential for price rebound. Investment logic remains unchanged, and coal assets are cost - effective. Suggest bottom - up allocation [11][12] - Key Focus: China's price governance mechanism aims to improve coal market price formation. India plans to increase coal production by 42% in the next 5 years [13] II. This Week's Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector rose 0.55% this week, outperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 fell 1.37% to 3861.50. The top three performing industries were power utilities (2.53%), agriculture and animal husbandry (1.56%), and pharmaceuticals (1.15%) [14] - The thermal coal sector rose 1.08%, the coking coal sector rose 0.34%, and the coke sector fell 2.08% [17] - The top three gainers in the coal mining and washing sector were Huaihe Energy (5.41%), China Shenhua (2.99%), and China National Coal Group (2.77%) [20] III. Coal Price Tracking - Coal Price Index: As of March 28, the CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) comprehensive transaction price was 667 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton week - on - week. As of April 2, the Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500) comprehensive average price index was 685 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. As of April, the CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) annual long - term agreement price was 679 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton month - on - month [24] - Thermal Coal Price: Port price in Qinhuangdao (Q5500) was flat at 667 yuan/ton. Some产地 prices increased. International FOB prices had mixed changes, and CIF prices also varied [29] - Coking Coal Price: Port prices in Jingtang and Lianyungang were flat. Some产地 prices increased, and the Australian coking coal CIF price was flat but down 23.26% year - on - year [31] - Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Price: The Jiaozuo anthracite car - loading price was flat, while some pulverized coal prices decreased [39] IV. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - Mine Capacity Utilization: The sample thermal coal mine capacity utilization rate was 94.1%, down 0.2 percentage points week - on - week, and the coking coal mine capacity utilization rate was 86.32%, up 1.6 percentage points week - on - week [46] - Import Coal Price Difference: The price difference for 5000 - kcal and 4000 - kcal thermal coal decreased week - on - week [42] - Coal - fired Power Consumption and Inventory: Inland 17 provinces' coal consumption increased 23.57% week - on - week, and inventory decreased 1.31%. Coastal 8 provinces' coal consumption increased 3.22% week - on - week, and inventory increased 1.17% [47] - Downstream Metallurgical Demand: The Myspic composite steel price index decreased, while the blast furnace operation rate, ton - steel profit, and other indicators showed various changes [60][61][63] - Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand: Urea prices in some regions increased, and some chemical product price indices decreased, while the cement price index increased. The cement clinker capacity utilization rate increased, and the float glass operation rate decreased slightly [65][67] V. Coal Inventory Situation - Thermal Coal Inventory: Qinhuangdao Port's coal inventory decreased to 670.0 million tons, 55 - port thermal coal inventory increased to 7228.3 million tons, and the 462 - sample mine thermal coal inventory decreased to 256.5 million tons [80] - Coking Coal Inventory: Production - area inventory decreased to 339.7 million tons, port inventory decreased to 347.6 million tons, and coking enterprise and steel mill inventories increased [81] - Coke Inventory: Coking enterprise inventory decreased, port inventory increased, and steel mill inventory increased [83] VI. Coal Transportation Situation - International and Domestic Coal Transportation: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1489.0 points, down 113.0 points week - on - week. The average daily coal shipment volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway decreased to 100.0 million tons [96] - Ratio of Cargo to Ships at Four Ports in the Bohai Rim: The inventory of four ports was 1666.1 million tons, the number of anchored ships was 54, and the cargo - to - ship ratio was 27.7, up 2.97 week - on - week [94] VII. Weather Situation - As of April 3, the Three Gorges出库流量 was 9350 cubic meters per second, down 10.95% week - on - week. In the next 10 days, precipitation in different regions showed different trends, and the average temperature in most parts of the country was expected to be higher than normal [101] VIII. Listed Company Valuation Table and Key Announcements - Listed Company Valuation Table: The table shows the closing price, net profit attributable to the parent company, EPS, and P/E ratio of multiple listed coal companies from 2023 to 2026 [102] - Key Announcements: Multiple companies such as Lanhua Sci & Tech, Meijin Energy, and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Industry made announcements regarding resource acquisition, loan extension, and convertible bond conversion [103][104][105]