SEP(SH:600021) Guoxin Securities·2025-04-06 08:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][18] Core Views - The company's operating performance continues to improve, with a slight increase in revenue and a significant rise in net profit. In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 42.734 billion yuan (+0.78%) and a net profit of 2.046 billion yuan (+28.46%) [7][3] - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by new projects coming online, while the increase in net profit is attributed to lower fuel costs and growth in clean energy generation capacity [7][3] - The company is actively advancing coal power projects, which are expected to further boost performance upon completion. Key projects include the Caoyang Comprehensive Energy Center Phase II and the expansion projects in Jiangsu and Shanghai [16][3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 42.734 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.78%, and a net profit of 2.046 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 28.46%. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.895 billion yuan, up 26.57% [7][4] - The company's coal price decreased to 1,072.41 yuan/ton, down 7.32% year-on-year, contributing to improved margins [7][9] - The company's gross margin improved to 23.47%, an increase of 1.54 percentage points, due to lower fuel costs [9][14] Project Development - The company is focusing on expanding its renewable energy capacity, with an addition of 2.2255 million kilowatts in 2024, bringing the total renewable capacity to 11.1849 million kilowatts [17][2] - Future development will prioritize offshore wind energy, with a target to expedite the commissioning of new renewable projects in provinces like Shandong, Shanghai, and Zhejiang [17][2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards due to anticipated declines in electricity volume. Expected net profits are 2.685 billion yuan in 2025, 3.012 billion yuan in 2026, and 3.263 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 31.2%, 12.2%, and 8.3% [3][18] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 9.7 for 2025, with a reasonable valuation range of 9.53 to 10.48 yuan per share, indicating a potential upside of 3% to 13% from the current price [3][18]