能源化工尿素周度报告-2025-04-06

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The overall outlook for the urea market is one of oscillatory pressure. International and domestic price disparities persist due to strict export inspection policies. In the short - term, the spot market is expected to be weak, influenced by macro - level factors such as the "reciprocal tariffs" between China and the United States and the pessimistic sentiment in the equity market. In the medium - term, the market will depend on the improvement of macro - sentiment and the release of fundamental demand. The futures market is also expected to follow the general trend of commodities, with the UR2505 contract likely to show a high - level oscillatory pattern [2][4]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Valuation: Price and Spread - International Spot Prices: Prices in various regions have generally increased, except for the Indian CIF price which remained stable. The price differences between the international and domestic markets continue due to strict export inspection policies [2]. - Domestic Spot Prices: Affected by the "reciprocal tariffs" between China and the United States, the market is driven by macro - narratives. In the short - term, the spot market is expected to be weak, while the medium - term trend depends on macro - sentiment and demand [2]. - Futures: In the short - term, the futures market is expected to decline along with commodities. In the medium - term, the UR2505 contract is expected to oscillate at a high level, with supply from upstream and mid - stream restricting the upside and agricultural demand providing support [4]. 3.2 Domestic Supply - Capacity: The expansion of urea production capacity continues in 2025. In 2024, a total of 427 million tons of new capacity was added, and in 2025, an additional 346 million tons of new capacity is expected [25]. - Production: Production profit is around the break - even point, and daily urea production remains at a high level [30]. - Cost: Raw material prices are relatively stable, and the factory's cash - flow cost is around 1,486 yuan/ton [32]. - Profit: The profit corresponding to the urea cash - flow cost is close to the break - even line [33]. - Net Import (Export): Due to the strict "Legal Inspection" policy, urea exports remain extremely low, although the theoretical export profit is high due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets [39][42]. 3.3 Demand - Agricultural Demand: Seasonal demand is increasing, and the construction of high - standard farmland has led to an increased demand for urea from corn [48][51]. - Industrial Demand: The production of compound fertilizers is operating at a high capacity utilization rate, while the production of melamine has decreased compared to last year. The demand for panels from the real estate sector is limited, but panel exports show resilience [57][59][60]. 3.4 Inventory - Factory Inventory: As of April 2, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 754,200 tons, a decrease of 113,600 tons from the previous week, a 13.09% week - on - week decrease. The inventory reduction rate has slowed down [3][66]. - Port Inventory: As of April 3, 2025 (week 14), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week, a 7.69% week - on - week decrease [67]. 3.5 International Urea - Prices: International urea prices are firm, with prices in various regions showing an upward trend [2]. - India: Information on India's urea production, imports, demand, and balance sheets from fiscal years 2018 - 2025 is provided, showing trends in supply, demand, and inventory changes [84].