铅产业链周度报告-2025-04-06

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is weak [3] Core Viewpoints - The lead market is entering a seasonal demand slump, leading to weak price performance [3] - The profit margin of secondary lead has significantly shrunk, and the operating rate of battery manufacturers has declined [4] - The supply side has seen marginal reductions. Primary lead production has both increases and decreases, while secondary lead production is limited by the shrinking supply and high price of scrap batteries [6] - The operating rate of battery manufacturers has declined from its peak, indicating a clear weakening of consumption, especially in the automotive battery sector [6] - The lead market is facing a situation of weak supply and demand, combined with a bearish macro - environment due to tariff impacts. However, the downside of lead prices is limited by restocking demand from battery manufacturers and the cost support of scrap batteries [6] Summary by Directory Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) - Price and Spread: The closing price of SHFE Lead Main Contract last week was 17,100 yuan, down 2.01% week - on - week; the closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 was 2,049.5 dollars, up 0.47% week - on - week. The LME lead cash - to - three - month spread was - 30.94 dollars, down 7.09 dollars from the previous week [7] - Inventory: SHFE lead warrant inventory decreased by 1,279 tons to 61,636 tons; SHFE total lead inventory decreased by 2,166 tons to 65,796 tons; social inventory increased by 800 tons to 70,000 tons; LME lead inventory increased by 4,050 tons to 235,250 tons [7] - Transaction and Position: The trading volume of SHFE Lead Main Contract last week was 53,156 lots, an increase of 2,203 lots from the previous week; the open interest was 47,915 lots, a decrease of 3,275 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 6,299 lots, an increase of 2,607 lots from the previous week; the open interest was 146,375 lots, an increase of 4,409 lots [7] Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Scrap Battery, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - Lead Concentrate: The import volume, domestic production, inventory, and processing fees of lead concentrate are presented in the data, with the import processing fee remaining at - 20 dollars/ton and the domestic production profit increasing by 202 yuan/ton [7][24][25] - Primary Lead: Some smelters in Yunnan and Hunan are ramping up production, while those in Jiangxi are reducing output. The weekly operating rate and production volume data of primary lead are provided [6][26] - Secondary Lead: The replacement consumption of scrap batteries has weakened, leading to a reduction in supply and relatively high prices. The profit margin of secondary lead smelters has been squeezed, and the production and cost - profit data are shown [6][28] Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Battery, End - User) - Lead - Acid Battery: The export volume, operating rate, and finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries are presented. The operating rate has declined from its peak, and the finished - product inventory of some enterprises has increased [32] - End - User: The monthly production volume data of automobiles and motorcycles are provided, which are related to the consumption of lead - acid batteries. The actual consumption volume of lead is also shown [34]