Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 2.86% during the week of March 31 to April 4, ranking it low among all primary industries. Industrial metals saw a significant drop of 4.36%, driven by heightened concerns over the U.S. and global economic downturn due to unexpected tariff policies [1][15] - The report highlights that the recent U.S. tariff policies have significantly increased market risk aversion, leading to a notable retreat in industrial metal prices. However, the macroeconomic framework suggests a bullish outlook for gold in the medium to long term [4][47] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.28%, with the non-ferrous metals sector declining by 2.86%, underperforming the index by 2.59 percentage points. Among sub-sectors, the industrial metals segment dropped by 4.36% [15][1] Industrial Metals - Copper: As of April 4, LME copper closed at $8,780 per ton, down 10.36% week-on-week. SHFE copper was at 78,860 CNY per ton, down 3.31%. The supply side remains constrained, while demand is affected by high prices [2][32] - Aluminum: LME aluminum closed at $2,379 per ton, down 6.63%, and SHFE aluminum at 20,420 CNY per ton, down 1.90%. Social inventory decreased, indicating a faster destocking rate [3][39] - Zinc: LME zinc closed at $2,657 per ton, down 7%, and SHFE zinc at 23,155 CNY per ton, down 3.94%. Both LME and SHFE inventories decreased [42] - Tin: LME tin closed at $35,378 per ton, down 2.32%, while SHFE tin was at 287,790 CNY per ton, up 2.27%. Inventory changes were mixed [44] Precious Metals - Gold: As of April 4, COMEX gold closed at $3,056.10 per ounce, down 1.99%, while SHFE gold was at 739.04 CNY per gram, up 4.05%. The recent U.S. tariff policies have heightened market risk aversion, boosting gold's safe-haven appeal [4][45][48]
有色金属行业跟踪周报：美国关税政策大超预期，市场避险情绪快速升温致使工业金属价格显著回调
Soochow Securities·2025-04-06 10:30