全国氧化铝厂陷入大面积亏损，过剩压力稍有缓和

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [1][5] 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina spot price continued to decline last week, and most alumina enterprises in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, and Guizhou have entered a loss - making situation. Although the supply pressure has slightly eased due to production cuts, the new production capacity in Indonesia will be put into operation in the second quarter, and the overall supply - demand situation still faces pressure. However, the price valuation is not high, and the futures price may gradually enter the bottom - grinding stage [3][13][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - Raw Materials: Domestic ore prices decreased last week. The含税 price of Shanxi 58/5 ore was 730 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 ore was 658 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan from last week), and Guizhou 60/6 bauxite was 596 yuan/ton. Due to the deepening of the mine resource integration policy, some mines were shut down, and the operating rate of mines in production was slightly lower than before the Spring Festival. The short - term bauxite price was still in a downward range. For imports, long - term contracts of large bauxite enterprises were signed successively, with the overall price ranging from 88 - 95 dollars/dry ton, and the spot price was 85 - 86 dollars/dry ton. The mining cost in Guinea was mostly between 30 - 45 dollars/ton. During the period, 342.4 million tons of new ore arrived, including 247.2 million tons from Guinea and 73.3 million tons from Australia. The freight of Cape - type ships from Guinea to China dropped to 22.5 dollars/ton [2][12] - Alumina: The spot price of alumina continued to decline last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2960 - 3030 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from last week; the domestic weighted index was 2985 yuan/ton, down 76.4 yuan/ton. The port price of imported alumina was 3300 - 3350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The market trading was mainly between aluminum plants and traders, and the trading method was mainly tender procurement. Most alumina enterprises in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, and Guizhou were in a loss - making situation. In the northern market, 20,000 tons of alumina were traded this week, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week, and the weighted trading price was 2964 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton. Overseas, the overseas trading price continued to fall. 24,000 tons of alumina were traded in Vietnam at FOB 352 dollars/ton, equivalent to about 3011 yuan/ton in RMB. In the second quarter, a new 1 - million - ton production line of Indonesia Nanshan will be put into operation, increasing the market supply pressure. As of last week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 3104 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was - 3 yuan/ton. The current production - cut capacity was about 2 million tons, and it was expected to reach about 5 million tons by mid - April [3][13] - Demand: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 43.848 million tons, unchanged from last week. There was no change in overseas demand, and the latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.358 million tons, also unchanged from last week [14] - Inventory: As of Thursday (April 3), the national alumina inventory was 3.39 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from last week. The alumina price continued to fall, and the net - purchasing industrial chain group continued to reduce the inventory of its own aluminum plants. The alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants continued to decline; the unpacked alumina inventory of alumina enterprises within the research scope continued to increase, and the non - aluminum industry consumption increased significantly, which was beneficial for some multi - variety alumina producers to reduce inventory; the social inventory of other ports changed relatively little [14] - Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 309,097 tons, a decrease of 1,516 tons from last week [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - The alumina trading price in Western Australia dropped to 330 dollars/ton, and the theoretical import feasibility increased. On April 3, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in Western Australia at an FOB price of 330 dollars/ton for May shipment. The theoretical import cost to China was about 2970 yuan/ton [16] - 24,000 tons of alumina were traded in Vietnam at an FOB price of 352 dollars/ton. On April 3, 24,000 tons of alumina were traded in Vietnam at an FOB price of 352 dollars/ton for early - May shipment, with payment upon delivery [16] - Two new alumina maintenance enterprises were added in the northern region. A Shanxi alumina enterprise planned to carry out major maintenance on its alumina production line on April 5, expected to resume production on April 20, with a daily impact on alumina production of about 3000 tons. A Henan alumina enterprise would carry out maintenance on a roasting furnace on April 4, with an initial maintenance time of about 10 days and a daily impact on alumina production of about 1300 tons [16] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - Raw Materials and Cost Side: The report presents data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][19][24] - Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance: It shows data on domestic alumina spot prices in various provinces, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. The table also shows the historical data of alumina and electrolytic aluminum operating capacity and supply - demand differences from November 2024 to April 2025 [33][35][39] - Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: It includes data on the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yards/platforms/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, total domestic social alumina inventory, and the warehouse - receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, as well as the ratio of holding volume to warehouse - receipt volume [42][45][50]