“对等关税”对中国经济的影响测算

Impact on Exports and GDP - If the 54% tariff is fully borne by Chinese exporters, it could lead to a 33.5% decrease in exports to the U.S., resulting in a 4.9 percentage point decline in total exports[10] - If the tariff burden is shared equally, the impact on exports would be approximately 2.5 percentage points[10] - The direct impact on GDP from a 4.9 percentage point decline in exports is estimated at 1.25 trillion yuan, with an indirect impact of around 800 billion yuan, totaling a 2.05 trillion yuan impact on GDP, affecting GDP growth by 1.53 percentage points[18] Consumption and Investment Projections - In 2024, actual growth in final consumption expenditure is projected at 3.9%, significantly lower than the 2012-2019 average of 5.2%[20] - If final consumption expenditure growth can return to the 2020-2023 average of 5.2%, it could contribute 2.93 percentage points to GDP growth[23] - A recovery to 2019's growth rate of 5.96% could increase the contribution to 3.36 percentage points[23] - Capital formation growth in 2024 is expected at 3.1%, slightly above the 2022 level of 2.7%[20] Policy Measures and Risks - Macro policies are being adjusted to stimulate domestic demand, with a targeted deficit rate increase to 4% and a total government debt increase of 11.86 trillion yuan[20] - The effectiveness of these policies in countering the tariff impacts will be crucial for achieving the 2025 growth target of around 5%[23] - Risks include potential inadequacies in policy measures, rising geopolitical tensions, and global recession risks[23]