对中重稀土实行出口管制，战略价值重估

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strategic value reassessment of medium and heavy rare earths due to export controls implemented by the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs [4][5][6] - The investment strategy suggests that domestic policies are continuously supporting the market, with small metal prices expected to show elasticity, particularly for rare earths, tin, and antimony [4][5][6] Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 296.8 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 278.2 billion yuan [2] - The report highlights a mixed performance in the small metal market, with significant price movements observed in various metals [4][6] Rare Earths - The price of rare earths is at a cyclical low, with import minerals now under control, leading to a more concentrated supply structure and potential price increases [4][5] - The report anticipates a long-term upward trend in the rare earth sector, particularly with the expected production ramp-up of humanoid robots, which could require an additional 200,000 to 400,000 tons of rare earths [4][5] Antimony - Antimony remains a tight supply metal, with domestic prices showing resilience despite slight declines [4][5] - The domestic antimony ingot price is reported at 248,000 yuan per ton, down 4.43% [5][14] Tin - Tin prices are experiencing fluctuations due to supply-demand dynamics, with the SHFE tin price rising by 1.95% to 287,800 yuan per ton [4][5] - The report notes that the supply of tin is relatively inelastic, and semiconductor consumption is expected to recover gradually [4][5] Lithium - Lithium prices continue to show weakness, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 73,300 yuan per ton, down 0.75% [4][5] - The report indicates that lithium production is stable, but inventory levels are increasing, suggesting a potential oversupply situation [4][5] Cobalt - Cobalt prices are on an upward trend due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with standard-grade cobalt priced at 15.88 USD per pound, up 0.79% [4][5] - The report highlights that domestic cobalt prices are facing downward pressure despite international price increases [4][5] Market Trends - The report notes a seasonal decline in demand across various sectors, including photovoltaic and consumer electronics, while the new energy vehicle market shows strong growth [4][19][27] - The photovoltaic sector saw a year-on-year increase of 7.49% in new installations during January-February 2025, totaling 39.47 GW [16][19]