A股策略周报20250406：失道者寡助-2025-04-06

Group 1 - The report indicates that the market consensus is leaning towards a "recession," but the likelihood of a liquidity crisis is low due to the limited impact of the recent "reciprocal tariffs" announced by Trump, which diverges from previous proposals by Treasury Secretary Bessent [3][12][17] - The report highlights that the recent "reciprocal tariffs" have led to significant market volatility, with most asset prices declining, indicating a potential global demand reduction, particularly affecting the US and China [3][14][17] - The report suggests that the Federal Reserve has more tools and greater capacity to prevent a liquidity crisis compared to past crises in 2008 and 2020, which provides a buffer against potential market disruptions [18][27] Group 2 - The report discusses the future trajectory of external demand, suggesting that the second quarter may represent the worst expectations, as the likelihood of a new trade agreement between the US and China has diminished [4][28] - It outlines two potential scenarios for external demand: one where tariffs push other trade partners towards China, potentially offsetting negative impacts, and another where third-party countries are pressured to increase tariffs on China, which could still remain manageable [4][28][39] - The report emphasizes that domestic consumption could offset some of the external demand drag, with a projected retail sales growth rate of 4.0% needed to counteract a 0.2 percentage point GDP drag from external factors [5][46] Group 3 - The report identifies sectors that could benefit from domestic consumption and the shift towards local alternatives, including agriculture, transportation, and various manufacturing sectors that are less affected by tariffs [5][47] - It highlights that certain industries, such as non-metallic products, basic metals, and machinery, are expected to gain market share and competitiveness despite tariff pressures [5][47][48] - The report suggests that investors should adopt a defensive strategy, focusing on sectors that benefit from domestic demand and low valuation assets, as the global economic order is being reshaped [6][52]