汽车行业周报（20250331-20250406）：预计汽车Q1销售表现超预期，美国宣布加征“对等关税”-2025-04-06

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [3][38]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is anticipated to exceed sales expectations in Q1, with wholesale sales of passenger vehicles expected to grow by 9% year-on-year, despite a 30% quarter-on-quarter decline. The growth in new energy vehicles is projected at 40% year-on-year, with a 37% quarter-on-quarter decline. The annual retail sales growth forecast has been revised upward to 3.1%, and wholesale growth to 7.1% [1][5]. - The impact of the U.S. imposing a 34% "reciprocal tariff" on Chinese goods is expected to have limited short-term effects on most Chinese auto parts, although aluminum and iron parts will still face a 25% tariff [2][15]. Data Tracking - In March, traditional automakers showed significant sales growth, with Beiqi Blue Valley leading at 14,000 units sold, a 93% year-on-year increase and a 129% month-on-month increase. GAC and Changan also showed recovery with 170,000 and 270,000 units sold, respectively [4][12]. - New energy vehicle deliveries in March were led by BYD with 377,420 units, a 24.8% year-on-year increase and a 16.9% month-on-month increase [12]. Industry News - The report highlights several key developments, including the launch of the SenseTime J6M autonomous driving solution and the listing plans of Seres on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Additionally, the implementation of regulations for autonomous vehicles in Beijing is noted [14][15]. Market Performance - The automotive sector experienced a decline of 3.54% this week, ranking last among sectors. The average decline for the sector was 2.6%, with 55 stocks rising and 222 falling [7][17].