策略周报：risk-off，短期仍是避险模式-2025-04-06

Group 1 - The current market is in a risk-off phase due to the significant impact of "reciprocal tariffs" introduced by the Trump administration, leading to increased volatility in global markets and a potential rise in the risk of stagflation in the US economy [2][7][9] - Domestic policies aimed at boosting internal demand are becoming increasingly necessary, with expectations for accelerated fiscal measures and potential monetary easing to stabilize the market [2][7][9] - The A-share market is facing adjustment pressure from both internal and external factors, with a need to closely monitor policy responses for signs of stabilization [2][9] Group 2 - The performance of various sectors indicates a clear preference for defensive industries such as utilities, banking, and coal, while export-oriented and technology growth sectors are under significant pressure [20][36] - The overall earnings growth for A-share companies is projected to be -0.2% for 2024, with non-financial companies showing a decline of -7.4%, indicating a challenging recovery process [22][23] - There is a recommendation to focus on sectors with improving earnings, particularly in domestic demand and dividend-paying stocks, such as retail, engineering machinery, and precious metals [22][23][33] Group 3 - The recent increase in passenger traffic during the Qingming Festival indicates a recovery in offline consumption, although hotel and flight prices continue to decline [26][27][29] - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a turning point due to improved policies and the integration of AI technology, which enhances drug development efficiency and diagnostic capabilities [32][33] - The impact of tariffs on industries heavily reliant on exports, such as machinery, new energy vehicles, and electronics, is expected to be significant, with potential declines in export volumes [2][9][33]