煤炭开采行业周报：原油价格大跌，煤价或体现强韧性-2025-04-06

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [7]. Core Viewpoints - Despite the recent significant drop in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production increases, coal prices are expected to show resilience, with limited further downside potential [5][6]. - The report highlights that China's coal production and consumption account for 52% and 56% of global totals, respectively, indicating that domestic factors will primarily influence coal prices [2]. - The report suggests a defensive investment approach towards the coal sector, recommending companies with high long-term contract ratios and stable profitability, such as China Shenhua and China Coal Energy [5]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - Brent crude oil futures settled at $65.58 per barrel, down 10.93% week-on-week [3]. - The average price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (5500 kcal) was 665 CNY/ton, down 0.24% week-on-week [3]. - The average price of thermal coal at Yulin, Shaanxi (5800 kcal) was 528 CNY/ton, up 0.48% week-on-week [3]. Production and Utilization - The operating rate of 110 sample washing plants was 60.8%, down 1.2 percentage points week-on-week and down 7.4 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnaces was 89.63%, up 0.55 percentage points week-on-week and up 6.02 percentage points year-on-year [4]. Inventory Trends - As of April 3, coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 6.7 million tons, down 4.29% week-on-week [5]. - The inventory at Bohai Rim ports was 30.27 million tons, down 3.08% week-on-week [5]. Company Performance Forecast - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies, with China Shenhua expected to have an EPS of 3.00 CNY in 2023, and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 13 [6]. - China Coal Energy is forecasted to have an EPS of 1.47 CNY in 2023, with a PE ratio of 7 [6].