Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-04-06 13:44Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the pharmaceutical industry, indicating a potential for outperformance compared to the overall market [27]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of the recent U.S. tariff measures, which include a 34% additional tariff on Chinese goods, and the subsequent Chinese countermeasures that may benefit domestic pharmaceutical companies [3][4][5]. - It emphasizes the growth in China's pharmaceutical exports, particularly to the U.S., which reached $19.05 billion in 2024, marking an 11.7% increase year-on-year [6][7]. - The report identifies specific sectors within the pharmaceutical industry that may benefit from the tariff situation, including blood products, high-end raw materials, medical devices, and innovative drugs [18][19]. Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The U.S. has implemented a 34% tariff on Chinese goods, which affects a wide range of medical supplies and devices, while China has responded with similar tariffs on U.S. imports [4][5]. - The tariffs are expected to disrupt the supply of imported blood products, potentially increasing demand for domestic alternatives [18]. Trade Statistics - In 2024, China's total pharmaceutical trade amounted to $199.376 billion, with exports at $107.964 billion and imports at $91.412 billion, showing a slight decline in imports but a recovery in exports [6][11]. - The U.S. remains the largest market for Chinese pharmaceutical exports, accounting for 17.6% of total exports [7][11]. Sector Opportunities - Blood Products: The tariff on U.S. imports may lead to increased domestic production and sales of blood products, with companies like Tian Tan Biological, Hualan Biological, and others positioned to benefit [18]. - High-End Raw Materials: The report suggests that domestic manufacturers of critical raw materials and consumables may gain market share due to reduced competition from U.S. imports [18]. - Medical Devices: Companies focusing on high-value medical devices are recommended for their potential to capture market share from imported products [18]. - Innovative Drugs: The report encourages investment in companies involved in the development of innovative drugs, particularly those that can replace U.S. imports in oncology and vaccine sectors [19].