我国对美关税反制，LPG供需格局或面临剧变

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillating with a bullish bias. It is recommended to wait and see for now due to the bullish impact of tariff policies but with suppression from the macro and demand sides [5] - Cross-variety: None - Options: None - Cross-period: None - Spot-futures: None 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market has changed suddenly. Under the impact of OPEC's production increase and the US "reciprocal tariff," Brent and WTI have both fallen by more than 10% in a short period [4][10] - After China's tariff countermeasures against the US, the original trade pattern of LPG will be broken. If trade negotiations make no progress, China's LPG imports from the US may drop rapidly or even to zero. The FEI swap price has fallen by $83 to $500/ton, while the CP swap price remains relatively stable at $595/ton. China is expected to significantly reduce LPG purchases from the US and turn to the Middle East for substitutes, and the CP market is expected to remain strong [4][21] - Currently, the US LPG faces the loss of an important buyer's demand, an increase in Chinese enterprises' import costs, and further pressure on PDH plant profits [4][38] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil: OPEC Production Increase and Tariff Impact Lead to a Sharp Drop in Oil Prices - Under the impact of OPEC's production increase and the US "reciprocal tariff," the crude oil market has dropped in resonance with risk assets in a short period, with Brent and WTI both falling by more than 10% [10] - The US "reciprocal tariff" has a significant impact on the macroeconomy and the crude oil market. It may trigger counter - tariff measures from other countries, and China has announced tariff countermeasures. Global oil demand is expected to decline by 1 million barrels per day [10] - OPEC and non - OPEC countries decided to increase daily production by 411,000 barrels from May this year, which is higher than market expectations. The crude oil market is under pressure from both supply and demand, and considering the uncertainty at the macro level, caution is advised [10] 3.2 China's Tariff Countermeasures Against the US May Cause a Major Shock in the LPG Market - After the US implemented the "reciprocal tariff" policy, China announced tariff countermeasures on April 4, 2025. Starting from April 10, 2025, a 34% tariff will be added to all imported goods from the US [17] - In 2024, China's total LPG imports were 35.68 million tons, with imports from the US accounting for more than half. The new tariff policy will break the original LPG trade pattern. If trade negotiations make no progress, China's LPG imports from the US may drop to zero [21] - After the counter - measure news, the FEI swap price fell by $83 to $500/ton, while the CP swap price remained stable at $595/ton, indicating that China will reduce LPG purchases from the US and turn to the Middle East, and the CP market is expected to remain strong [21] 3.3 PDH Plant Profits are Under Pressure, and the Operating Rate May Decline - Before the intensification of the tariff conflict, the domestic LPG market had support at the bottom but lacked upward drivers. After the US implemented the "reciprocal tariff" and China announced counter - measures, the LPG supply - demand pattern was significantly affected [38] - After the 34% tariff is added, the cost of US propane at the port of arrival may exceed 5,500 yuan/ton, further pressuring the profits of domestic PDH plants. In the short term, the supply from other sources such as the Middle East cannot fill the gap, and some PDH plants may choose to shut down for maintenance, leading to a decline in the operating rate [38]